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OpenAI Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 73 live markets · refreshed twice a day
OpenAI: GPT model releases, products and company events. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live OpenAI markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 45% | -7.5 pts | $200.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Google 66.5% | +0.4 pts | $97.2K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | By December 31 92.5% | -1.5 pts | $17.3K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 61.5% | +11.0 pts | $15.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? | <$1T 22.1% | -0.4 pts | $10.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.25T 84.5% | +2.5 pts | $10.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 52.5% | — | $10.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| 3rd largest private company end of October? | ByteDance 93% | -0.5 pts | $8.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 55.6% | -0.1 pts | $7.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic 50.7% | +4.3 pts | $4.3K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| OpenAI resumes training? | Not resumed by October 20 46% | +7.0 pts | $3.5K | Oct 21, 2026 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | Google 46.5% | — | $3.3K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | DeepSeek 48% | — | $2.9K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? | Earbuds/Headphones 21.5% | +6.5 pts | $2.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Yes 4.5% | — | $2.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| # of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? | 3 31% | -0.5 pts | $2.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 18.5% | — | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2030 |
| What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026? | ↑ $60 42% | -20.5 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | None in 2026 76.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | No IPO by December 31, 2026 95.2% | -0.5 pts | $1.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 16% | -0.5 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI resumes training? | By October 31 63% | +4.5 pts | $1.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic 96.4% | -0.1 pts | $925 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $800B 79.3% | +3.1 pts | $819 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026? | $1.20-$1.30T 16.5% | -2.5 pts | $794 | Nov 30, 2026 |
| What will GPT Sol's output token price hit in 2026? | ↓ $8 29% | -11.0 pts | $731 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | MiniMax 45.1% | — | $632 | Oct 13, 2026 |
| What will OpenAI's public ticker be? | $OAI 49% | +4.5 pts | $631 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by October 31? | ↑$1.05T 89% | +12.5 pts | $577 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 40%+ 91.5% | +0.7 pts | $498 | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? | 55%+ 85% | +2.0 pts | $473 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 2nd largest private company end of October? | OpenAI 93% | — | $329 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI + Anthropic 19.5% | -3.0 pts | $294 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| ChatGPT Outage? | By October 31 81% | — | $218 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape? | By October 31 44% | +7.0 pts | $167 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Largest private company end of October? | Anthropic 99.2% | +0.1 pts | $143 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| How many Codex resets week of October 5? | 4+ 35.5% | — | $141 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? | $40+ 70.5% | +0.5 pts | $132 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| ChatGPT Dots on the free plan? | By December 31 22% | +2.0 pts | $106 | Jan 1, 2027 |
33 smaller markets are not shown; all 73 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the OpenAI odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 73 live OpenAI markets with $419.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 45%), followed by Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 66.5%), GPT Astra 6.1+ released? (By December 31 92.5%).
How many OpenAI markets are open on Polymarket?
73 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “OpenAI odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/openai/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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