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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 83.5%, followed by Discord at 5.8%, Anduril Industries at 4.2%. The market has $7.48M in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $697.5K |
| Cerebras (settled) | 100% | — | $428.4K |
| Once Upon a Farm (settled) | 100% | +0.6 pts | $214.5K |
| SHEIN (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $120.7K |
| Wealthfront (settled) | 100% | +0.7 pts | $23.1K |
| Anthropic | 83.5% | — | $628.5K |
| Discord | 5.8% | +0.8 pts | $486.8K |
| Anduril Industries | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $57.0K |
| Perplexity | 4.0% | -0.5 pts | $123 |
| Freddie Mac | 3.9% | -0.5 pts | $246.1K |
| Applied Intuition | 3.9% | +0.2 pts | $206.9K |
| Rippling | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $121.8K |
| Remote | 3.5% | -0.4 pts | $56.6K |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | 3.2% | — | $106.8K |
| Celonis | 3.1% | — | $211.1K |
20 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $7.48M · 24h volume $3.3K · Liquidity $130.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Anthropic ■ Discord ■ Anduril Industries · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".
This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 83.5%, followed by Discord at 5.8%, Anduril Industries at 4.2%. The market has $7.48M in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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