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Anthropic Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 66 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Anthropic: Claude model releases, rankings and a possible IPO. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Anthropic markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 45% | -7.5 pts | $200.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Google 66.5% | +0.4 pts | $97.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 31.1% | +1.1 pts | $25.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic IPO by __? | December 31, 2026 81.5% | -1.5 pts | $24.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 21.5% | — | $21.7K | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 98.8% | +0.4 pts | $12.8K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $1.75–$2.00T 44.5% | +12.0 pts | $9.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| 3rd largest private company end of October? | ByteDance 93% | -0.5 pts | $8.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 65.5% | +4.6 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 93.5% | +0.5 pts | $6.0K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) | 600B+ 94% | — | $4.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | Google 46.5% | — | $3.3K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 79% | -6.5 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut? | 1400+ 83% | +6.0 pts | $3.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | DeepSeek 48% | — | $2.9K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? | Morgan Stanley 88% | +0.5 pts | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026? | ↑ $55 43.5% | -3.5 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | October 17 27.7% | +23.4 pts | $1.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? | 45%+ 90.5% | -3.5 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released? | By December 31 97.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released? | October 13 32% | +18.0 pts | $1.6K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | None in 2026 75.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 50%+ 86% | +0.5 pts | $1.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Claude go down on __ days in October? | 5-7 38% | +0.5 pts | $1.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? | 1510+ 72% | -8.0 pts | $1.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's public ticker be? | $ANTH 44.5% | -9.5 pts | $970 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic 96.4% | -0.1 pts | $925 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? | $40+ 65.5% | -2.5 pts | $841 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026? | ↑ $25 69.5% | -7.0 pts | $818 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | MiniMax 43.6% | — | $632 | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Anthropic lab leak? | By June 30, 2027 9.0% | +0.5 pts | $608 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026? | ↑ $25 33.5% | -1.5 pts | $485 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $1.5T 92.2% | +0.9 pts | $408 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? | 1500+ 90.5% | +6.0 pts | $399 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| 2nd largest private company end of October? | OpenAI 93% | — | $329 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by October 31? | ↑$1.4T 85.5% | — | $321 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI + Anthropic 19.5% | -3.0 pts | $294 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape? | By October 31 32.5% | +18.5 pts | $240 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes 16.5% | +1.0 pts | $200 | Jan 1, 2027 |
26 smaller markets are not shown; all 66 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Anthropic odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 66 live Anthropic markets with $460.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 45%), followed by Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 66.5%), Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($2.0–$2.25T 31.1%).
How many Anthropic markets are open on Polymarket?
66 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “Anthropic odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/anthropic/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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