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AI Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 186 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Artificial intelligence: model releases, leaderboard rankings and AI company milestones. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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Live AI markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 45% | -7.5 pts | $200.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Google 66.5% | +0.4 pts | $97.2K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Indiana enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 14.5% | — | $85.7K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Gemini 4.0 released? | By November 30 97.7% | +1.4 pts | $76.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Ohio enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | +1.0 pts | $47.3K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 31.1% | +1.1 pts | $25.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? | No solution by Dec 31, 2027 38.5% | +12.5 pts | $18.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | By December 31 92.5% | -1.5 pts | $17.3K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 61.5% | +11.0 pts | $15.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI? | By October 31 36.5% | +13.5 pts | $13.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 98.8% | +0.4 pts | $12.8K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.25T 84.5% | +2.5 pts | $10.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 52.5% | — | $10.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $1.75–$2.00T 44.5% | +12.0 pts | $9.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of November? | $5.00-$5.50 22% | +3.5 pts | $9.3K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Alibaba 39% | +12.0 pts | $8.7K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November? | OpenAI 89.5% | +5.0 pts | $8.6K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 65.5% | +4.6 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 55.6% | -0.1 pts | $7.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| GPU rental prices (A100) end of November? | $0.75-$1.00 55% | +22.0 pts | $7.4K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Texas enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | — | $6.8K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 93.5% | +0.5 pts | $6.0K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| North Carolina enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 29.5% | — | $5.8K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| GPU rental prices (B200) end of November? | <$7.00 22% | +8.5 pts | $5.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Missouri enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.1K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of November? | OpenAI 37.5% | +17.0 pts | $5.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| #2 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On) | Google 30% | -3.5 pts | $4.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 63% | -11.5 pts | $4.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) | 600B+ 94% | — | $4.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? | 1480+ 37.8% | +10.5 pts | $4.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? | Meta 9.5% | — | $4.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will the next Muse model family be named? | Muse Fire 17.5% | +2.0 pts | $4.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? | 55%+ 36.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI resumes training? | Not resumed by October 20 46% | +7.0 pts | $3.5K | Oct 21, 2026 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5? | Google 46.5% | — | $3.3K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December? | Google 51.5% | — | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Meta's "Watermelon" model released? | By November 30 90.5% | — | $3.3K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 79% | -6.5 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? | Hodge Conjecture 23.5% | +2.5 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
146 smaller markets are not shown; all 186 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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People in these markets
Hodge Conjecture · Riemann Hypothesis · Google Gemini
More Tech & AI odds
OpenAI (73) · Anthropic (66) · Big Tech (177) · Elon Musk (66) · Science & Space (97)
Frequently asked questions
What are the AI odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 186 live AI markets with $884.8K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 45%), followed by Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 66.5%), Indiana enacts data center moratorium? (By December 31, 2028 14.5%).
How many AI markets are open on Polymarket?
186 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “AI odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ai/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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