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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 40.5%, followed by By March 31, 2027 at 24.5%, By December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. The market has $3.04M in total volume and $251 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 40.5% | -5.0 pts | $1.5K |
| By March 31, 2027 | 24.5% | — | $1.7K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.04M |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $957.5K |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $495.5K |
| By August 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $207.4K |
| By July 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $184.1K |
| By September 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $150.9K |
Total volume $3.04M · 24h volume $251 · Liquidity $28.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By March 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 40.5%, followed by By March 31, 2027 at 24.5%, By December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. The market has $3.04M in total volume and $251 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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