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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is November 2026 at 65.5%, followed by December 2026 at 16.6%, February 2027 at 6.0%. The market has $343.2K in total volume and $7.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | 65.5% | +4.6 pts | $66.8K |
| December 2026 | 16.6% | -8.5 pts | $42.4K |
| February 2027 | 6.0% | +1.4 pts | $8.4K |
| January 2027 | 2.8% | +0.2 pts | $9.4K |
| May 2027 | 2.2% | -0.2 pts | $7.9K |
| No IPO before 2028 | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $15.2K |
| October 2026 | 1.2% | -0.1 pts | $83.6K |
| March 2027 | 1.1% | — | $8.7K |
| April 2027 | 1.1% | — | $7.9K |
| June 2027 | 0.8% | — | $7.9K |
| October 2027 | 0.6% | — | $7.4K |
| July 2027 | 0.5% | — | $7.6K |
| September 2027 | 0.5% | — | $7.5K |
| December 2027 | 0.5% | — | $7.4K |
| November 2027 | 0.5% | — | $7.4K |
2 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $343.2K · 24h volume $7.7K · Liquidity $66.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ November 2026 ■ December 2026 ■ February 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange.
An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing.
If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · AI odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is November 2026 at 65.5%, followed by December 2026 at 16.6%, February 2027 at 6.0%. The market has $343.2K in total volume and $7.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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