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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 79.5%, followed by December 15, 2026 at 78.5%, November 30, 2026 at 66%. The market has $4.43M in total volume and $28.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 79.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.02M |
| December 15, 2026 | 78.5% | -2.0 pts | $137.4K |
| November 30, 2026 | 66% | +3.5 pts | $233.6K |
| November 15, 2026 | 11.5% | +3.5 pts | $115.2K |
| October 31, 2026 | 1.4% | +0.2 pts | $1.15M |
| October 15, 2026 | <0.1% | — | $231.4K |
| September 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.10M |
| September 15, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $325.2K |
| July 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $75.8K |
| June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $32.2K |
Total volume $4.43M · 24h volume $28.3K · Liquidity $138.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2026 ■ December 15, 2026 ■ November 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · Anthropic odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 79.5%, followed by December 15, 2026 at 78.5%, November 30, 2026 at 66%. The market has $4.43M in total volume and $28.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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