Início › Polymarket em português › Probabilidades de inteligência artificial no Polymarket
Atualizado em 6 de outubro de 2026 · 187 mercados abertos · atualização duas vezes por dia
Em 6 de outubro de 2026, o Polymarket tem 187 mercados abertos sobre inteligência artificial, com US$ 884 mil negociados nas últimas 24 horas. O mais ativo é Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 48%), seguido de Gemini 4.0 released? (By November 30 97,9%), Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 67,7%).
Ordenados pelo volume das últimas 24 horas. Os títulos ficam em inglês, como no Polymarket.
| Mercado | Resultado líder | Variação 24h | Volume 24h | Encerramento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 48% | -0,5 p.p. | US$ 118 mil | 31 dez 2026 |
| Gemini 4.0 released? | By November 30 97,9% | +1,2 p.p. | US$ 92 mil | 1 dez 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Google 67,7% | +1,2 p.p. | US$ 82 mil | 31 out 2026 |
| Ohio enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25,5% | — | US$ 57 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| North Carolina enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25,5% | — | US$ 53 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 29% | -1,0 p.p. | US$ 38 mil | 1 jan 2028 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 97,5% | -1,6 p.p. | US$ 32 mil | 31 dez 2026 |
| Indiana enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 14,5% | — | US$ 27 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 22,5% | +1,0 p.p. | US$ 27 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 63,5% | +13,0 p.p. | US$ 26 mil | 1 jan 2028 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 93,5% | — | US$ 24 mil | 5 jan 2027 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Anthropic 47,5% | +2,0 p.p. | US$ 18 mil | 1 dez 2026 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | By December 31 93,5% | +1,0 p.p. | US$ 18 mil | 31 dez 2026 |
| Texas enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 26,5% | +1,0 p.p. | US$ 15 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? | No solution by Dec 31, 2027 35% | -6,0 p.p. | US$ 11 mil | 1 jan 2028 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Alibaba 41% | +14,0 p.p. | US$ 11 mil | 31 out 2026 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.25T 84,5% | +0,5 p.p. | US$ 9 mil | 5 jan 2027 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November? | OpenAI 89,5% | +20,5 p.p. | US$ 7 mil | 1 dez 2026 |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 75,5% | — | US$ 7 mil | 1 jan 2027 |
| GPU rental prices (A100) end of November? | $0.75-$1.00 60% | +29,5 p.p. | US$ 7 mil | 1 dez 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 64,5% | +0,8 p.p. | US$ 7 mil | 1 jan 2028 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October? | OpenAI 88% | -6,5 p.p. | US$ 6 mil | 31 out 2026 |
| Next Gemini Pro Model released? | No release by October 31 78,5% | -5,0 p.p. | US$ 6 mil | 31 out 2026 |
| Louisiana enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 19,5% | +1,0 p.p. | US$ 6 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| What will the next Muse model family be named? | Muse Fire 22,5% | +4,5 p.p. | US$ 5 mil | 31 dez 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of November? | $5.00-$5.50 22% | +3,0 p.p. | US$ 5 mil | 1 dez 2026 |
| Meta's Watermelon released? | No release by October 31 25,5% | -8,5 p.p. | US$ 5 mil | 31 out 2026 |
| Meta's "Watermelon" model released? | By November 30 90,5% | — | US$ 5 mil | 30 nov 2026 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI? | By October 31 38,5% | +4,0 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 1 nov 2026 |
| Missouri enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25,5% | — | US$ 4 mil | 1 jan 2029 |
| Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? | OpenAI 9,5% | -6,5 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 1 jan 2027 |
| Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? | 55%+ 87,5% | +0,6 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 1 jan 2027 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | By December 31 37% | — | US$ 4 mil | 1 nov 2026 |
| Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | DeepSeek 30,5% | — | US$ 4 mil | 1 jul 2027 |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | Yes 6,9% | +0,9 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 1 jan 2027 |
| #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On) | Meta 54,5% | +1,0 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 31 out 2026 |
| Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? | 55%+ 37,5% | +4,5 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 1 jan 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) | 600B+ 94% | -0,1 p.p. | US$ 4 mil | 1 jan 2028 |
| What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026? | ↓ $40 53% | +7,0 p.p. | US$ 3 mil | 1 jan 2027 |
| Third-best AI Lab end of October? | Meta 46% | +8,0 p.p. | US$ 3 mil | 31 out 2026 |
Em mercados com vários resultados aparece o de maior preço; nos de sim/não, o preço do “sim”. Dados públicos do Polymarket; não é recomendação de investimento.
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Em 6 de outubro de 2026, o Polymarket tem 187 mercados abertos sobre inteligência artificial, com US$ 884 mil negociados nas últimas 24 horas. O mais ativo é Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 48%), seguido de Gemini 4.0 released? (By November 30 97,9%), Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 67,7%).
São os preços das cotas de cada resultado: uma cota a 60 centavos paga US$ 1 se o fato acontecer, então o mercado estima cerca de 60% de chance. Não são cotações executáveis nem pesquisa eleitoral.
Duas vezes por dia, com os dados públicos do Polymarket. Polymarket View é um site independente, sem vínculo com o Polymarket.
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