{
 "updated": "2026-10-06T01:30:06+00:00",
 "method": "bid/ask midpoint on each exchange; gap = polymarket - kalshi",
 "events": [
  {
   "key": "fed-october",
   "title": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "fed",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.05,
   "end_date": "2026-10-29",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Cut 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0015,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0085
    },
    {
     "name": "Cut 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.0035,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0065
    },
    {
     "name": "No change",
     "polymarket": 0.805,
     "kalshi": 0.795,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.195,
     "kalshi": 0.205,
     "gap": -0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0035,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0065
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "fed-december",
   "title": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632",
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "fed",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.05,
   "end_date": "2026-12-10",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Cut 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0035,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0065
    },
    {
     "name": "Cut 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.0115,
     "kalshi": 0.015,
     "gap": -0.0035
    },
    {
     "name": "No change",
     "polymarket": 0.225,
     "kalshi": 0.255,
     "gap": -0.03
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.745,
     "kalshi": 0.735,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0295,
     "kalshi": 0.025,
     "gap": 0.0045
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "house-2026",
   "title": "Which party wins the House in 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "CONTROLH-2026",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "party",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2026-11-04",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Democrats",
     "polymarket": 0.925,
     "kalshi": 0.9155,
     "gap": 0.0095
    },
    {
     "name": "Republicans",
     "polymarket": 0.075,
     "kalshi": 0.088,
     "gap": -0.013
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "senate-2026",
   "title": "Which party wins the Senate in 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "CONTROLS-2026",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "party",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2026-11-04",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Democrats",
     "polymarket": 0.655,
     "kalshi": 0.645,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Republicans",
     "polymarket": 0.345,
     "kalshi": 0.355,
     "gap": -0.01
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "president-2028-party",
   "title": "Which party wins the 2028 presidential election",
   "polymarket_event": "which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
   "kalshi_event": "KXPRESPARTY-2028",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "party",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2028-11-08",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Democrats",
     "polymarket": 0.645,
     "kalshi": 0.585,
     "gap": 0.06
    },
    {
     "name": "Republicans",
     "polymarket": 0.345,
     "kalshi": 0.415,
     "gap": -0.07
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "brazil-2026",
   "title": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "polymarket_event": "brazil-presidential-election",
   "kalshi_event": "KXBRPRES-26",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "exact",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
     "polymarket": 0.8375,
     "kalshi": 0.825,
     "gap": 0.0125
    },
    {
     "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
     "polymarket": 0.155,
     "kalshi": 0.165,
     "gap": -0.01
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "pro-football-2027",
   "title": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "polymarket_event": "pro-football-2027-champion-20260729185915366",
   "kalshi_event": "KXSB-27",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "team",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "end_date": "2027-04-01",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Buffalo Bills",
     "polymarket": 0.125,
     "kalshi": 0.105,
     "gap": 0.02
    },
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Rams",
     "polymarket": 0.125,
     "kalshi": 0.115,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "San Francisco 49ers",
     "polymarket": 0.0975,
     "kalshi": 0.095,
     "gap": 0.0025
    },
    {
     "name": "Kansas City Chiefs",
     "polymarket": 0.0925,
     "kalshi": 0.085,
     "gap": 0.0075
    },
    {
     "name": "Seattle Seahawks",
     "polymarket": 0.075,
     "kalshi": 0.085,
     "gap": -0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Baltimore Ravens",
     "polymarket": 0.0755,
     "kalshi": 0.075,
     "gap": 0.0005
    },
    {
     "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
     "polymarket": 0.0495,
     "kalshi": 0.055,
     "gap": -0.0055
    },
    {
     "name": "Chicago Bears",
     "polymarket": 0.0415,
     "kalshi": 0.045,
     "gap": -0.0035
    },
    {
     "name": "Cincinnati Bengals",
     "polymarket": 0.0375,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": 0.0025
    },
    {
     "name": "Dallas Cowboys",
     "polymarket": 0.0355,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": 0.0005
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "world-series-2026",
   "title": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "polymarket_event": "mlb-world-series-champion-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "KXMLB-26",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "team",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "polymarket": 0.285,
     "kalshi": 0.278,
     "gap": 0.007
    },
    {
     "name": "Milwaukee Brewers",
     "polymarket": 0.246,
     "kalshi": 0.2535,
     "gap": -0.0075
    },
    {
     "name": "Tampa Bay Rays",
     "polymarket": 0.163,
     "kalshi": 0.152,
     "gap": 0.011
    },
    {
     "name": "New York Yankees",
     "polymarket": 0.095,
     "kalshi": 0.0985,
     "gap": -0.0035
    },
    {
     "name": "Atlanta Braves",
     "polymarket": 0.089,
     "kalshi": 0.0985,
     "gap": -0.0095
    },
    {
     "name": "San Diego Padres",
     "polymarket": 0.0255,
     "kalshi": 0.0265,
     "gap": -0.001
    },
    {
     "name": "Cleveland Guardians",
     "polymarket": 0.0235,
     "kalshi": 0.0155,
     "gap": 0.008
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "nba-2027",
   "title": "NBA champion 2027",
   "polymarket_event": "nba-2027-champion",
   "kalshi_event": "KXNBA-27",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "team",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "end_date": "2027-07-01",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "San Antonio Spurs",
     "polymarket": 0.225,
     "kalshi": 0.215,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Oklahoma City Thunder",
     "polymarket": 0.185,
     "kalshi": 0.215,
     "gap": -0.03
    },
    {
     "name": "New York Knicks",
     "polymarket": 0.125,
     "kalshi": 0.085,
     "gap": 0.04
    },
    {
     "name": "Philadelphia 76ers",
     "polymarket": 0.1105,
     "kalshi": 0.125,
     "gap": -0.0145
    },
    {
     "name": "Miami Heat",
     "polymarket": 0.0305,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": -0.0345
    },
    {
     "name": "Minnesota Timberwolves",
     "polymarket": 0.053,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": -0.012
    },
    {
     "name": "Boston Celtics",
     "polymarket": 0.045,
     "kalshi": 0.045,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Lakers",
     "polymarket": 0.0215,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": -0.0135
    },
    {
     "name": "Toronto Raptors",
     "polymarket": 0.0325,
     "kalshi": 0.025,
     "gap": 0.0075
    },
    {
     "name": "Denver Nuggets",
     "polymarket": 0.0305,
     "kalshi": 0.025,
     "gap": 0.0055
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "nhl-2027",
   "title": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "polymarket_event": "nhl-2027-champion-20260612185656162",
   "kalshi_event": "KXNHL-27",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "team",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "end_date": "2027-07-01",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Colorado Avalanche",
     "polymarket": 0.115,
     "kalshi": 0.125,
     "gap": -0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Florida Panthers",
     "polymarket": 0.085,
     "kalshi": 0.105,
     "gap": -0.02
    },
    {
     "name": "Carolina Hurricanes",
     "polymarket": 0.095,
     "kalshi": 0.095,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Edmonton Oilers",
     "polymarket": 0.085,
     "kalshi": 0.085,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Vegas Golden Knights",
     "polymarket": 0.065,
     "kalshi": 0.075,
     "gap": -0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Minnesota Wild",
     "polymarket": 0.0525,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": -0.0125
    },
    {
     "name": "Tampa Bay Lightning",
     "polymarket": 0.065,
     "kalshi": 0.055,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Montreal Canadiens",
     "polymarket": 0.0555,
     "kalshi": 0.045,
     "gap": 0.0105
    },
    {
     "name": "Dallas Stars",
     "polymarket": 0.055,
     "kalshi": 0.05,
     "gap": 0.005
    },
    {
     "name": "San Jose Sharks",
     "polymarket": 0.0335,
     "kalshi": 0.055,
     "gap": -0.0215
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "ucl-2027",
   "title": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "polymarket_event": "uefa-champions-league-2027-champion-20260701202025549",
   "kalshi_event": "KXUCL-27",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "team",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "end_date": "2027-06-20",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Barcelona",
     "polymarket": 0.215,
     "kalshi": 0.245,
     "gap": -0.03
    },
    {
     "name": "Bayern Munich",
     "polymarket": 0.145,
     "kalshi": 0.145,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Arsenal",
     "polymarket": 0.135,
     "kalshi": 0.135,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Real Madrid",
     "polymarket": 0.095,
     "kalshi": 0.115,
     "gap": -0.02
    },
    {
     "name": "Manchester City",
     "polymarket": 0.085,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": 0.02
    },
    {
     "name": "Liverpool",
     "polymarket": 0.045,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Inter Milan",
     "polymarket": 0.0225,
     "kalshi": 0.025,
     "gap": -0.0025
    },
    {
     "name": "Manchester United",
     "polymarket": 0.0215,
     "kalshi": 0.015,
     "gap": 0.0065
    },
    {
     "name": "Como",
     "polymarket": 0.0095,
     "kalshi": 0.02,
     "gap": -0.0105
    },
    {
     "name": "Atlético Madrid",
     "polymarket": 0.0175,
     "kalshi": 0.015,
     "gap": 0.0025
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "openai-anthropic-ipo",
   "title": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first",
   "polymarket_event": "will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first",
   "kalshi_event": "KXOAIANTH-40",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "exact",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Anthropic",
     "polymarket": 0.9635,
     "kalshi": 0.945,
     "gap": 0.0185
    },
    {
     "name": "OpenAI",
     "polymarket": 0.0365,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": -0.0285
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "us-recession-2026",
   "title": "US recession by the end of 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "us-recession-by-end-of-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "KXRECSSNBER-26",
   "note": "The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.",
   "kind": "binary",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.05,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Yes",
     "polymarket": 0.075,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": 0.04
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds comparison: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi/"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi public trade API; not affiliated with either."
}