Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › US recession by the end of 2026
Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Yes at 7.5% and Kalshi at 3.5%. The widest gap is on Yes: 7.5% on Polymarket vs 3.5% on Kalshi (4.0 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees. ⚠️ The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.5% | 3.5% | +4.0 pts | Kalshi |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Yes at 7.5% and Kalshi at 3.5%. The widest gap is on Yes: 7.5% on Polymarket vs 3.5% on Kalshi (4.0 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees. ⚠️ The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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