Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first
Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 96.4% and Kalshi at 94.5%. The widest gap is on OpenAI: 3.6% on Polymarket vs 6.5% on Kalshi (2.9 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 96.4% | 94.5% | +1.9 pts | Kalshi |
| OpenAI | 3.6% | 6.5% | -2.9 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 96.4% and Kalshi at 94.5%. The widest gap is on OpenAI: 3.6% on Polymarket vs 6.5% on Kalshi (2.9 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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