Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Fed decision in December 2026
Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 74.5% and Kalshi at 73.5%. The widest gap is on No change: 22.5% on Polymarket vs 25.5% on Kalshi (3.0 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 pts | Polymarket |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.3 pts | Polymarket |
| No change | 22.5% | 25.5% | -3.0 pts | Polymarket |
| Hike 25 bp | 74.5% | 73.5% | +1.0 pts | Kalshi |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 2.9% | 2.5% | +0.4 pts | Kalshi |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
📊 Fed rate odds for every upcoming FOMC meeting, Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 74.5% and Kalshi at 73.5%. The widest gap is on No change: 22.5% on Polymarket vs 25.5% on Kalshi (3.0 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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