Home › Polymarket odds › People › Friedrich Merz
Updated October 6, 2026 · 9 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Friedrich Merz appears in 9 live Polymarket markets with $2.42M traded. The biggest: Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? at 7.0%; Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? at 1.6%; Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? at 1.1%. Prices are traders' implied chances, updated twice a day.
| Market | Chance | 24h | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $2.25M | 2027-01-01 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $138.3K | 2026-11-01 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | 1.1% | -2.7 pts | $32.4K | 2027-01-01 |
| Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? | 18.5% | -7.5 pts | $1.7K | 2026-10-31 |
| Who will Trump speak to by October 31? | 97.1% | +1.4 pts | $1.6K | 2026-11-01 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | 21% | — | $741 | 2027-04-01 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | 4.3% | +0.1 pts | $556 | 2026-12-01 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027? | 20.5% | — | $40 | 2027-07-01 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? | 24.5% | — | $5 | 2028-01-01 |
For list markets (nominees, winners, appointments) the chance is Friedrich Merz's own outcome; for Yes/No questions it is the Yes price. Free JSON: /api/v1/people/friedrich-merz.json (CC BY 4.0).
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Polymarket View, “Friedrich Merz odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/person/friedrich-merz/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Friedrich Merz appears in 9 live Polymarket markets with $2.42M traded. The biggest: Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? at 7.0%; Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? at 1.6%; Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? at 1.1%. Prices are traders' implied chances, updated twice a day.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?: 7.0% with $2.25M traded, as of October 6, 2026.
From Polymarket's public market data, refreshed twice a day. A price of 30% means traders pay 30 cents for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All people · All Polymarket odds