Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Brazil presidential election winner
Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 83.7% and Kalshi at 82.5%. The widest gap is on Flávio Bolsonaro: 83.7% on Polymarket vs 82.5% on Kalshi (1.2 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 83.7% | 82.5% | +1.2 pts | Kalshi |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 15.5% | 16.5% | -1.0 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 83.7% and Kalshi at 82.5%. The widest gap is on Flávio Bolsonaro: 83.7% on Polymarket vs 82.5% on Kalshi (1.2 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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