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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: September 7, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is AfD at 42%, followed by CDU at 14.5%, SPD at 10.5%. The market has $48.2K in total volume and $998 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 42% | -10.5 pts | $14.7K |
| CDU | 14.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.0K |
| SPD | 10.5% | -2.0 pts | $9.5K |
| BSW | 9.6% | -6.2 pts | $4.5K |
| Linke | 8.8% | -0.1 pts | $10.8K |
| Grüne | 7.5% | -4.0 pts | $3.3K |
| FDP | 3.6% | +0.2 pts | $2.3K |
Total volume $48.2K · 24h volume $998 · Liquidity $33.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ AfD ■ CDU ■ SPD · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is AfD at 42%, followed by CDU at 14.5%, SPD at 10.5%. The market has $48.2K in total volume and $998 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is September 7, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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