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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Unusual Machines at 53.5%, followed by Anduril at 21.5%, Anthropic at 17%. The market has $196.1K in total volume and $769 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti (settled) | 100% | +0.4 pts | $27.8K |
| GlobalFoundries (settled) | 100% | +1.8 pts | $10.2K |
| D-Wave (settled) | 100% | +3.5 pts | $5.7K |
| Unusual Machines | 53.5% | +6.0 pts | $755 |
| Anduril | 21.5% | +5.0 pts | $45.9K |
| Anthropic | 17% | +0.5 pts | $6.9K |
| IonQ | 16.5% | +3.0 pts | $3.2K |
| TSMC | 15.5% | +2.0 pts | $16.1K |
| Micron | 15.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.4K |
| Nvidia | 14% | — | $16.1K |
| OpenAI | 13.5% | -0.5 pts | $11.6K |
| Lockheed Martin | 13% | — | $3.0K |
| Eli Lilly | 11.9% | — | $3.4K |
| Boeing | 10.5% | — | $11.1K |
| Palantir | 7.8% | +1.3 pts | $4.8K |
5 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $196.1K · 24h volume $769 · Liquidity $12.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Unusual Machines ■ Anduril ■ Anthropic · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · US Economy odds · Big Tech odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Unusual Machines at 53.5%, followed by Anduril at 21.5%, Anthropic at 17%. The market has $196.1K in total volume and $769 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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