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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 10, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Raphael Glucksmann at 85.5%, followed by Olivier Faure at 9.0%, Segolene Royal at 5.0%. The market has $65.6K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raphael Glucksmann | 85.5% | -2.0 pts | $26.4K |
| Olivier Faure | 9.0% | -1.5 pts | $5.1K |
| Segolene Royal | 5.0% | +3.2 pts | $3.3K |
| Boris Vallaud | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $13.6K |
| Jérôme Guedj | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K |
| Francois Hollande | 0.5% | -0.4 pts | $6.5K |
| Philippe Brun | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $4.1K |
| Carole Delga | 0.1% | — | $1.6K |
| Karim Bouamrane | <0.1% | — | $1.9K |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
Total volume $65.6K · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $215.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Raphael Glucksmann ■ Olivier Faure ■ Segolene Royal · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.
If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · France odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Raphael Glucksmann at 85.5%, followed by Olivier Faure at 9.0%, Segolene Royal at 5.0%. The market has $65.6K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 10, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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