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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: August 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Chris Thomas at 33%, followed by Jane Poole-Wilson at 26.5%, Alfred Cannan at 21%. The market has $49.9K in total volume and $429 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thomas | 33% | -10.5 pts | $9.1K |
| Jane Poole-Wilson | 26.5% | +0.5 pts | $6.7K |
| Alfred Cannan | 21% | -4.5 pts | $22.2K |
| Rob Callister | 8.6% | -1.4 pts | $6.5K |
| Lawrie Hooper | 2.1% | +0.1 pts | $4.8K |
| Alex Allinson | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $583 |
Total volume $49.9K · 24h volume $429 · Liquidity $23.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Chris Thomas ■ Jane Poole-Wilson ■ Alfred Cannan · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · United Kingdom odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Chris Thomas at 33%, followed by Jane Poole-Wilson at 26.5%, Alfred Cannan at 21%. The market has $49.9K in total volume and $429 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is August 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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