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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 12, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Canceled at 91.8%, followed by François Ruffin at 0.4%, Clémentine Autain at 0.4%. The market has $231.3K in total volume and $336 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canceled | 91.8% | -0.8 pts | $94.2K |
| François Ruffin | 0.4% | — | $31.8K |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $7.4K |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.2% | — | $50.0K |
| Lydie Massard | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $43.6K |
| Benjamin Lucas-Lundy | 0.1% | — | $4.3K |
Total volume $231.3K · 24h volume $336 · Liquidity $112.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Canceled ■ François Ruffin ■ Clémentine Autain · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Canceled at 91.8%, followed by François Ruffin at 0.4%, Clémentine Autain at 0.4%. The market has $231.3K in total volume and $336 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 12, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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