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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lorenzo Pazolini at 90%, followed by Ricardo Ferraço at 8.5%, Arnaldinho Borgo at <0.1%. The market has $46.2K in total volume and $516 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Pazolini | 90% | +6.5 pts | $17.8K |
| Ricardo Ferraço | 8.5% | +1.5 pts | $16.5K |
| Arnaldinho Borgo | <0.1% | — | $4.9K |
| Sergio Vidigal | <0.1% | — | $3.6K |
| Euclério Sampaio | <0.1% | — | $3.4K |
Total volume $46.2K · 24h volume $516 · Liquidity $71.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Lorenzo Pazolini ■ Ricardo Ferraço ■ Arnaldinho Borgo · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lorenzo Pazolini at 90%, followed by Ricardo Ferraço at 8.5%, Arnaldinho Borgo at <0.1%. The market has $46.2K in total volume and $516 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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