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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: June 7, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Manuel Cota Cárdenas at 73.8%, followed by Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 12%, Christian Agúndez Gómez at 9.0%. The market has $26.5K in total volume and $12 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Cota Cárdenas | 73.8% | +0.8 pts | $4.0K |
| Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias | 12% | -0.5 pts | $5.4K |
| Christian Agúndez Gómez | 9.0% | +0.5 pts | $7.9K |
| Milena Quiroga Romero | 5.8% | -0.9 pts | $3.1K |
| José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar | 0.8% | -0.1 pts | $562 |
| Ricardo Barroso Agramont | 0.4% | — | $582 |
| Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón | 0.4% | — | $520 |
| Edith Aguilar Villavicencio | 0.3% | — | $661 |
| Susana Zataraín García | 0.3% | — | $520 |
| Antonio Manríquez | 0.2% | — | $552 |
| Fabricio del Castillo | 0.1% | — | $427 |
| Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros | 0.1% | — | $302 |
| Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado | <0.1% | — | $546 |
| Roxana Higuera | <0.1% | — | $505 |
| Diana Von Borstel Luna | <0.1% | — | $488 |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $26.5K · 24h volume $12 · Liquidity $238.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Manuel Cota Cárdenas ■ Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias ■ Christian Agúndez Gómez · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Mexico odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Manuel Cota Cárdenas at 73.8%, followed by Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 12%, Christian Agúndez Gómez at 9.0%. The market has $26.5K in total volume and $12 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 7, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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