{
 "updated": "2026-10-06T01:32:17+00:00",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi/price-gaps/"
 },
 "method": "Polymarket: published outcome prices; Kalshi: midpoint of best bid and ask (else last trade); gap = polymarket - kalshi, before fees",
 "summary": {
  "n": 205,
  "mean": 1.0871,
  "median": 0.95,
  "within2": 0.8732,
  "within5": 0.9902,
  "max": 7.0
 },
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0015,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.0035,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "No change",
   "polymarket": 0.805,
   "kalshi": 0.795,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.195,
   "kalshi": 0.205,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0035,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0035,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.0115,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": -0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "No change",
   "polymarket": 0.225,
   "kalshi": 0.255,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.745,
   "kalshi": 0.735,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0295,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": 0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the House in 2026",
   "outcome": "Democrats",
   "polymarket": 0.925,
   "kalshi": 0.9155,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/house-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the House in 2026",
   "outcome": "Republicans",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.088,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/house-2026/",
   "gap": -0.013
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the Senate in 2026",
   "outcome": "Democrats",
   "polymarket": 0.655,
   "kalshi": 0.645,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/senate-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the Senate in 2026",
   "outcome": "Republicans",
   "polymarket": 0.345,
   "kalshi": 0.355,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/senate-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the 2028 presidential election",
   "outcome": "Democrats",
   "polymarket": 0.645,
   "kalshi": 0.585,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/president-2028-party/",
   "gap": 0.06
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the 2028 presidential election",
   "outcome": "Republicans",
   "polymarket": 0.345,
   "kalshi": 0.415,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/president-2028-party/",
   "gap": -0.07
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
   "polymarket": 0.8375,
   "kalshi": 0.825,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0125
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
   "polymarket": 0.155,
   "kalshi": 0.165,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Buffalo Bills",
   "polymarket": 0.125,
   "kalshi": 0.105,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Los Angeles Rams",
   "polymarket": 0.125,
   "kalshi": 0.115,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "San Francisco 49ers",
   "polymarket": 0.0975,
   "kalshi": 0.095,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Kansas City Chiefs",
   "polymarket": 0.0925,
   "kalshi": 0.085,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Seattle Seahawks",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.085,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Baltimore Ravens",
   "polymarket": 0.0755,
   "kalshi": 0.075,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
   "polymarket": 0.0495,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Chicago Bears",
   "polymarket": 0.0415,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Cincinnati Bengals",
   "polymarket": 0.0375,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Dallas Cowboys",
   "polymarket": 0.0355,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
   "polymarket": 0.285,
   "kalshi": 0.278,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Milwaukee Brewers",
   "polymarket": 0.246,
   "kalshi": 0.2535,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Tampa Bay Rays",
   "polymarket": 0.163,
   "kalshi": 0.152,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "New York Yankees",
   "polymarket": 0.095,
   "kalshi": 0.0985,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Atlanta Braves",
   "polymarket": 0.089,
   "kalshi": 0.0985,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "San Diego Padres",
   "polymarket": 0.0255,
   "kalshi": 0.0265,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Cleveland Guardians",
   "polymarket": 0.0235,
   "kalshi": 0.0155,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.008
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "San Antonio Spurs",
   "polymarket": 0.225,
   "kalshi": 0.215,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Oklahoma City Thunder",
   "polymarket": 0.185,
   "kalshi": 0.215,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "New York Knicks",
   "polymarket": 0.125,
   "kalshi": 0.085,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.04
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Philadelphia 76ers",
   "polymarket": 0.1105,
   "kalshi": 0.125,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0145
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Miami Heat",
   "polymarket": 0.0305,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0345
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Minnesota Timberwolves",
   "polymarket": 0.053,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.012
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Boston Celtics",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Los Angeles Lakers",
   "polymarket": 0.0215,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0135
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Toronto Raptors",
   "polymarket": 0.0325,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Denver Nuggets",
   "polymarket": 0.0305,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Colorado Avalanche",
   "polymarket": 0.115,
   "kalshi": 0.125,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Florida Panthers",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.105,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Carolina Hurricanes",
   "polymarket": 0.095,
   "kalshi": 0.095,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Edmonton Oilers",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.085,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Vegas Golden Knights",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.075,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Minnesota Wild",
   "polymarket": 0.0525,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0125
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Tampa Bay Lightning",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Montreal Canadiens",
   "polymarket": 0.0555,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0105
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Dallas Stars",
   "polymarket": 0.055,
   "kalshi": 0.05,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "San Jose Sharks",
   "polymarket": 0.0335,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0215
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Barcelona",
   "polymarket": 0.215,
   "kalshi": 0.245,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Bayern Munich",
   "polymarket": 0.145,
   "kalshi": 0.145,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Arsenal",
   "polymarket": 0.135,
   "kalshi": 0.135,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Real Madrid",
   "polymarket": 0.095,
   "kalshi": 0.115,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Manchester City",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Liverpool",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Inter Milan",
   "polymarket": 0.0225,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Manchester United",
   "polymarket": 0.0215,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Como",
   "polymarket": 0.0095,
   "kalshi": 0.02,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0105
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Atlético Madrid",
   "polymarket": 0.0175,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Economy and business",
   "market": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first",
   "outcome": "Anthropic",
   "polymarket": 0.9635,
   "kalshi": 0.945,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/openai-anthropic-ipo/",
   "gap": 0.0185
  },
  {
   "category": "Economy and business",
   "market": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first",
   "outcome": "OpenAI",
   "polymarket": 0.0365,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/openai-anthropic-ipo/",
   "gap": -0.0285
  },
  {
   "category": "Economy and business",
   "market": "US recession by the end of 2026",
   "outcome": "Yes",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/us-recession-2026/",
   "gap": 0.04
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Iowa senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Josh Turek)",
   "polymarket": 0.425,
   "kalshi": 0.435,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Iowa senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ashley Hinson)",
   "polymarket": 0.575,
   "kalshi": 0.565,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Maine senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Troy Jackson)",
   "polymarket": 0.585,
   "kalshi": 0.555,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Maine senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Susan Collins)",
   "polymarket": 0.415,
   "kalshi": 0.445,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Ohio senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Sherrod Brown)",
   "polymarket": 0.615,
   "kalshi": 0.635,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Ohio senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Jon Husted)",
   "polymarket": 0.385,
   "kalshi": 0.355,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Texas senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (James Talarico)",
   "polymarket": 0.645,
   "kalshi": 0.655,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Texas senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ken Paxton)",
   "polymarket": 0.355,
   "kalshi": 0.345,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Kansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Adam Hamilton)",
   "polymarket": 0.33,
   "kalshi": 0.335,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Kansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Roger Marshall)",
   "polymarket": 0.675,
   "kalshi": 0.655,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Michigan senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Abdul El-Sayed)",
   "polymarket": 0.735,
   "kalshi": 0.735,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Michigan senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Rogers)",
   "polymarket": 0.265,
   "kalshi": 0.275,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Nebraska senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.001,
   "kalshi": 0.008,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Nebraska senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Pete Ricketts)",
   "polymarket": 0.735,
   "kalshi": 0.715,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Annie Andrews)",
   "polymarket": 0.16,
   "kalshi": 0.135,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Darline Graham Nordone)",
   "polymarket": 0.845,
   "kalshi": 0.865,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Minnesota senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Peggy Flanagan)",
   "polymarket": 0.865,
   "kalshi": 0.855,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Minnesota senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Michele Tafoya)",
   "polymarket": 0.135,
   "kalshi": 0.145,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Hampshire senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Chris Pappas)",
   "polymarket": 0.87,
   "kalshi": 0.865,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Hampshire senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (John E. Sununu)",
   "polymarket": 0.135,
   "kalshi": 0.135,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Mississippi senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Scott Colom)",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.0915,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Mississippi senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Cindy Hyde-Smith)",
   "polymarket": 0.905,
   "kalshi": 0.9085,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Florida senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Angie Nixon)",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.11,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Florida senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ashley Moody)",
   "polymarket": 0.915,
   "kalshi": 0.895,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Montana senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Alani Bankhead)",
   "polymarket": 0.004,
   "kalshi": 0.0095,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Montana senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Kurt Alme)",
   "polymarket": 0.915,
   "kalshi": 0.9235,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Dakota senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.0015,
   "kalshi": 0.0015,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Dakota senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Rounds)",
   "polymarket": 0.9215,
   "kalshi": 0.9315,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Louisiana senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jamie Davis)",
   "polymarket": 0.06,
   "kalshi": 0.037,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.023
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Louisiana senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Julia Letlow)",
   "polymarket": 0.93,
   "kalshi": 0.964,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.034
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Arkansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Hallie Shoffner)",
   "polymarket": 0.0655,
   "kalshi": 0.0695,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Arkansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Tom Cotton)",
   "polymarket": 0.936,
   "kalshi": 0.9345,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Tennessee senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Marquita Bradshaw)",
   "polymarket": 0.061,
   "kalshi": 0.0775,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0165
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Tennessee senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Bill Hagerty)",
   "polymarket": 0.9405,
   "kalshi": 0.924,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0165
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Idaho senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.0045,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Idaho senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Jim Risch)",
   "polymarket": 0.9465,
   "kalshi": 0.9245,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.022
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Georgia senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jon Ossoff)",
   "polymarket": 0.9605,
   "kalshi": 0.9605,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Georgia senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Collins)",
   "polymarket": 0.0335,
   "kalshi": 0.0375,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "North Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Roy Cooper)",
   "polymarket": 0.962,
   "kalshi": 0.9675,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "North Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Michael Whatley)",
   "polymarket": 0.0365,
   "kalshi": 0.033,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Alabama senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Everett Wess)",
   "polymarket": 0.0155,
   "kalshi": 0.024,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Alabama senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Barry Moore)",
   "polymarket": 0.9665,
   "kalshi": 0.9765,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Mexico senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Ben Ray Luján)",
   "polymarket": 0.974,
   "kalshi": 0.984,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Mexico senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Larry Marker)",
   "polymarket": 0.0155,
   "kalshi": 0.0145,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Wyoming senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (James W. Byrd)",
   "polymarket": 0.0255,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Wyoming senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Harriet Hageman)",
   "polymarket": 0.9755,
   "kalshi": 0.9765,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Jersey senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Cory Booker)",
   "polymarket": 0.978,
   "kalshi": 0.9865,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Jersey senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Justin Murphy)",
   "polymarket": 0.019,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.009
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oregon senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jeff Merkley)",
   "polymarket": 0.9785,
   "kalshi": 0.988,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oregon senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (David Brock Smith)",
   "polymarket": 0.021,
   "kalshi": 0.0185,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Massachusetts senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Ed Markey)",
   "polymarket": 0.979,
   "kalshi": 0.988,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.009
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Massachusetts senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (John Deaton)",
   "polymarket": 0.018,
   "kalshi": 0.0135,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Colorado senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (John Hickenlooper)",
   "polymarket": 0.9795,
   "kalshi": 0.9915,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.012
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Colorado senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mark Baisley)",
   "polymarket": 0.0155,
   "kalshi": 0.009,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Illinois senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Juliana Stratton)",
   "polymarket": 0.9795,
   "kalshi": 0.9805,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Illinois senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Don Tracy)",
   "polymarket": 0.022,
   "kalshi": 0.0205,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Mark Warner)",
   "polymarket": 0.9805,
   "kalshi": 0.984,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Bert Mizusawa)",
   "polymarket": 0.0215,
   "kalshi": 0.0115,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "West Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Rachel Fetty Anderson)",
   "polymarket": 0.0115,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0135
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "West Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Shelley Moore Capito)",
   "polymarket": 0.982,
   "kalshi": 0.978,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oklahoma senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas)",
   "polymarket": 0.014,
   "kalshi": 0.037,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.023
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oklahoma senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Kevin Hern)",
   "polymarket": 0.9835,
   "kalshi": 0.968,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0155
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Delaware senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.9845,
   "kalshi": 0.989,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Delaware senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Republican)",
   "polymarket": 0.016,
   "kalshi": 0.0125,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Rhode Island senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jack Reed)",
   "polymarket": 0.9925,
   "kalshi": 0.99,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Rhode Island senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Raymond McKay)",
   "polymarket": 0.008,
   "kalshi": 0.0095,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Georgia governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Keisha Lance Bottoms)",
   "polymarket": 0.485,
   "kalshi": 0.485,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Georgia governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Rick Jackson)",
   "polymarket": 0.505,
   "kalshi": 0.525,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nevada governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Aaron Ford)",
   "polymarket": 0.555,
   "kalshi": 0.515,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.04
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nevada governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Joe Lombardo)",
   "polymarket": 0.445,
   "kalshi": 0.485,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.04
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Ohio governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Amy Acton)",
   "polymarket": 0.665,
   "kalshi": 0.665,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Ohio governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Vivek Ramaswamy)",
   "polymarket": 0.325,
   "kalshi": 0.34,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Texas governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Gina Hinojosa)",
   "polymarket": 0.275,
   "kalshi": 0.265,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Texas governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Greg Abbott)",
   "polymarket": 0.7295,
   "kalshi": 0.745,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0155
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Kansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Cindy Holscher)",
   "polymarket": 0.255,
   "kalshi": 0.255,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Kansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ty Masterson)",
   "polymarket": 0.735,
   "kalshi": 0.735,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oregon governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Tina Kotek)",
   "polymarket": 0.755,
   "kalshi": 0.755,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oregon governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Christine Drazan)",
   "polymarket": 0.235,
   "kalshi": 0.245,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Florida governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (David Jolly)",
   "polymarket": 0.235,
   "kalshi": 0.235,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Florida governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Byron Donalds)",
   "polymarket": 0.765,
   "kalshi": 0.765,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Vermont governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Amanda Janoo)",
   "polymarket": 0.2285,
   "kalshi": 0.245,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0165
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Vermont governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Phil Scott)",
   "polymarket": 0.765,
   "kalshi": 0.755,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wisconsin governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (David Crowley)",
   "polymarket": 0.805,
   "kalshi": 0.785,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wisconsin governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Tom Tiffany)",
   "polymarket": 0.185,
   "kalshi": 0.215,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Iowa governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Rob Sand)",
   "polymarket": 0.885,
   "kalshi": 0.885,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Iowa governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Zach Lahn)",
   "polymarket": 0.115,
   "kalshi": 0.125,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nebraska governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Lynne Walz)",
   "polymarket": 0.095,
   "kalshi": 0.099,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nebraska governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Jim Pillen)",
   "polymarket": 0.89,
   "kalshi": 0.8995,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arizona governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Katie Hobbs)",
   "polymarket": 0.915,
   "kalshi": 0.885,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arizona governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Andy Biggs)",
   "polymarket": 0.095,
   "kalshi": 0.12,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Alabama governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Doug Jones)",
   "polymarket": 0.07,
   "kalshi": 0.0845,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0145
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Alabama governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Tommy Tuberville)",
   "polymarket": 0.923,
   "kalshi": 0.9205,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oklahoma governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Cyndi Munson)",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.082,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oklahoma governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Mazzei)",
   "polymarket": 0.925,
   "kalshi": 0.918,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Michigan governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jocelyn Benson)",
   "polymarket": 0.941,
   "kalshi": 0.93,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Michigan governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (John James)",
   "polymarket": 0.0525,
   "kalshi": 0.0725,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Carolina governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jermaine Johnson)",
   "polymarket": 0.047,
   "kalshi": 0.0575,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0105
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Carolina governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Alan Wilson)",
   "polymarket": 0.945,
   "kalshi": 0.9475,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maine governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Hannah Pingree)",
   "polymarket": 0.9495,
   "kalshi": 0.945,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maine governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Robert Charles)",
   "polymarket": 0.0525,
   "kalshi": 0.0545,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.002
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Minnesota governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Amy Klobuchar)",
   "polymarket": 0.955,
   "kalshi": 0.9575,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Minnesota governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Lisa Demuth)",
   "polymarket": 0.0505,
   "kalshi": 0.044,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New Mexico governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Deb Haaland)",
   "polymarket": 0.955,
   "kalshi": 0.9345,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0205
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New Mexico governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Gregg Hull)",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.0575,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0125
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Tennessee governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jerri Green)",
   "polymarket": 0.0425,
   "kalshi": 0.0545,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.012
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Tennessee governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Marsha Blackburn)",
   "polymarket": 0.9555,
   "kalshi": 0.944,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0115
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New York governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Kathy Hochul)",
   "polymarket": 0.961,
   "kalshi": 0.9595,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New York governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Bruce Blakeman)",
   "polymarket": 0.0395,
   "kalshi": 0.0435,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Massachusetts governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Maura Healey)",
   "polymarket": 0.9615,
   "kalshi": 0.9535,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.008
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Massachusetts governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Michael Minogue)",
   "polymarket": 0.0365,
   "kalshi": 0.0465,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Colorado governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Phil Weiser)",
   "polymarket": 0.964,
   "kalshi": 0.9635,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Colorado governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Victor Marx)",
   "polymarket": 0.0185,
   "kalshi": 0.0345,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.016
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Connecticut governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Ned Lamont)",
   "polymarket": 0.9655,
   "kalshi": 0.9705,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Connecticut governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ryan Fazio)",
   "polymarket": 0.0245,
   "kalshi": 0.0365,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.012
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Dakota governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Dan Ahlers)",
   "polymarket": 0.0285,
   "kalshi": 0.0305,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.002
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Dakota governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Larry Rhoden)",
   "polymarket": 0.9655,
   "kalshi": 0.9725,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maryland governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Wes Moore)",
   "polymarket": 0.967,
   "kalshi": 0.969,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.002
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maryland governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Dan Cox)",
   "polymarket": 0.021,
   "kalshi": 0.0265,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arkansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Fredrick Love)",
   "polymarket": 0.027,
   "kalshi": 0.0355,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arkansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)",
   "polymarket": 0.968,
   "kalshi": 0.9585,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Pennsylvania governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Josh Shapiro)",
   "polymarket": 0.969,
   "kalshi": 0.976,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Pennsylvania governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Stacy Garrity)",
   "polymarket": 0.0265,
   "kalshi": 0.023,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Rhode Island governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Helena Foulkes)",
   "polymarket": 0.9705,
   "kalshi": 0.967,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Rhode Island governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Republican)",
   "polymarket": 0.0175,
   "kalshi": 0.024,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wyoming governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Kenneth Casner)",
   "polymarket": 0.0275,
   "kalshi": 0.034,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wyoming governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Eric Barlow)",
   "polymarket": 0.9735,
   "kalshi": 0.969,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Illinois governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (JB Pritzker)",
   "polymarket": 0.977,
   "kalshi": 0.966,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Illinois governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Darren Bailey)",
   "polymarket": 0.018,
   "kalshi": 0.0335,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0155
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Idaho governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Terri Pickens)",
   "polymarket": 0.023,
   "kalshi": 0.023,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Idaho governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Brad Little)",
   "polymarket": 0.9795,
   "kalshi": 0.9755,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Hawaii governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Josh Green)",
   "polymarket": 0.982,
   "kalshi": 0.9735,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Hawaii governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Gary Cordery)",
   "polymarket": 0.009,
   "kalshi": 0.0215,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0125
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Cut 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0125,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Cut 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.0245,
   "kalshi": 0.04,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": -0.0155
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "No change",
   "polymarket": 0.575,
   "kalshi": 0.615,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": -0.04
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Hike 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.375,
   "kalshi": 0.37,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Hike 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0245,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.0095
  }
 ]
}