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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kuwait at 10.5%, followed by Qatar at 10.5%, Bahrain at 10.5%. The market has $67.4K in total volume and $839 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.3K |
| Qatar | 10.5% | — | $2.3K |
| Bahrain | 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.8K |
| Egypt | 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $11.1K |
| Iraq | 7.5% | — | $1.6K |
| Jordan | 5.9% | — | $1.5K |
| Syria | 5.7% | -0.4 pts | $2.7K |
| Morocco | 5.1% | +1.5 pts | $4.4K |
| Yemen | 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $683 |
| Iran | 4.3% | +0.5 pts | $2.5K |
| United Arab Emirates | 3.1% | +0.3 pts | $21.2K |
| Oman | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.1K |
| Algeria | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $543 |
| Somalia | 2.2% | -0.6 pts | $5.6K |
| Lebanon | 1.8% | -1.4 pts | $2.8K |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $67.4K · 24h volume $839 · Liquidity $163.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Kuwait ■ Qatar ■ Bahrain · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:
- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or
- the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.
Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.
Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kuwait at 10.5%, followed by Qatar at 10.5%, Bahrain at 10.5%. The market has $67.4K in total volume and $839 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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