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Polymarket week in review: September 28 – October 4, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update October 4, 12:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of September 28 – October 4, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Closest Governor's Race? — Florida 6.4% → 100% (+93.6 points). 57 new markets opened in the seven days to October 4.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Closest Governor's Race?	Florida	6.4%	100%	+93.6 pts
Oura IPO Closing Market Cap	No IPO before January 2027	0.4%	84.4%	+83.9 pts
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?	100M+	16.5%	98.7%	+82.2 pts
National Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election?	13+	25%	98.5%	+73.5 pts
Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner	Manuel Cota Cárdenas	2.8%	73.3%	+70.5 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?	Kansas	30.5%	93%	+62.5 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of October?	Google	7.8%	69.5%	+61.7 pts
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	No change	26%	87.5%	+61.5 pts
"Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office	<17m	39%	99.8%	+60.8 pts
What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?	↑ 0.0070	27.5%	85.5%	+58.0 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
What price will Ethereum hit September 28-October 4?	↓ 2,600	63.5%	1.1%	-62.4 pts
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?	Juan Reyes Mejía González	69%	13.5%	-55.5 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?	1490+	91.8%	36.4%	-55.5 pts
What will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest reach in 2026?	$7B	60.4%	10.4%	-50.0 pts
Kraken IPO by ___ ?	June 30, 2027	80.5%	31.5%	-49.0 pts
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske?	By December 31	68.5%	26%	-42.5 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?	40%+	95.1%	53%	-42.0 pts
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place	Benedita da Silva	55%	13%	-42.0 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?	By October 31	64%	23%	-41.0 pts
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?	↑ $64	97%	56.2%	-40.7 pts

New markets

→ Indiana enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 15.5%
→ Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Yes 6.5%
→ Missouri enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 23.5%
→ Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 21.5%
→ Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? Yes 30.5%
→ Who will be Trump's AI "czar" in 2026? Jay Clayton 78%
→ Texas enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 25.5%
→ EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? 30M+ 96.7%
→ Will Russia target Kyiv? October 3 99.5%
→ EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026? 30M+ 79%
→ Louisiana enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 19.5%
→ Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes) 44-47% 61.5%
→ Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? (Higher Strikes) 45-48% 46.5%
→ Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No Next Minister by Feb 28 29.5%
→ Next Israeli Minister of Finance? No Next Minister by Feb 28 33%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All weekly recaps