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Biggest Polymarket moves this week

Sep 29 – Oct 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day · the most-traded long-running markets

The biggest Polymarket move of the week (Sep 29 – Oct 6, 2026): Closest Governor's Race? — Florida went from 5.8% to 100% (+94.2 points). 731 of the tracked markets rose and 704 fell by half a point or more; the tables list the largest moves each way.

Biggest risers

MarketOutcome7 days agoNowChange
Closest Governor's Race?Florida5.8%100%+94.2 pts
Trujillo Mayoral Election WinnerRoy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera6.8%98.7%+91.9 pts
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanderson6.6%92.2%+85.6 pts
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?100M+16.5%99.9%++83.5 pts
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd PlaceMarcel Van Hattem12.4%95.5%+83.0 pts
Spain snap election called?By December 3117%99.9%+82.8 pts
Oura IPO Closing Market CapNo IPO before January 20270.4%82.7%+82.2 pts
Will Iran target an Arab country?By September 3028.5%99.9%++71.5 pts
Amazonas Senate Election: 2nd PlacePlinio Valério5.0%73.6%+68.5 pts
Will Iran target Iraq?By September 3036.5%99.9%++63.5 pts
Huancayo Mayoral Election WinnerEmerson Nolasco Delgado36.5%98.6%+62.1 pts
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerElber Requejo Sánchez38%98.6%+60.6 pts
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz?September 2826.5%84%+57.5 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Google9.6%66.5%+56.9 pts
Second-best AI Lab end of October?Anthropic9.5%66%+56.5 pts

Biggest fallers

MarketOutcome7 days agoNowChange
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerEduardo Paes86%3.5%-82.5 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?1490+91.9%31.8%-60.1 pts
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Hike 25 bps73.5%17.5%-56.0 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?By October 3174%21.5%-52.5 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?40%+93.8%41.6%-52.2 pts
Indiana enacts data center moratorium?By December 31, 202753.5%9.5%-44.0 pts
Will Papertrade launch a token by ___?December 31, 202682%38.5%-43.5 pts
Kraken IPO by ___ ?March 31, 202760%17.5%-42.5 pts
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes71%29.5%-41.5 pts
Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?UDMR71%30%-41.0 pts
UEFA Nations League 2026-27: Group B2 WinnerUkraine45.5%5.0%-40.5 pts
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?≥ 4.5%49.4%9.5%-39.8 pts
Will Decibel launch a token by ___?December 31, 202659%19.5%-39.5 pts
Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election WinnerUPB38.6%<0.1%-38.6 pts
Will Reya launch a token by ___?December 31, 202671%33%-38.0 pts

Change = the outcome's price now minus its price on the chart point closest to seven days ago (charts use 12-hour points). Only the most-traded long-running markets we track are included; for the last 24 hours see the biggest movers watchlist.

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