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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 36%, followed by By November 30 at 30%, By October 31 at 21.5%. The market has $1.59M in total volume and $3.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 36% | -1.5 pts | $3.0K |
| By November 30 | 30% | -1.0 pts | $3.3K |
| By October 31 | 21.5% | +1.5 pts | $138.5K |
| By October 23 | 13% | +0.5 pts | $10.4K |
| By October 15 | 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $39.1K |
| By October 9 | 3.6% | -0.1 pts | $19.7K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $347.2K |
| By August 14 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $246.0K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -17.4 pts | $207.1K |
| By August 7 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $148.8K |
| By August 21 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $127.4K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $92.5K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.4 pts | $57.3K |
| By June 26 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $19.7K |
| By July 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.5 pts | $18.8K |
11 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.59M · 24h volume $3.4K · Liquidity $20.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 36%, followed by By November 30 at 30%, By October 31 at 21.5%. The market has $1.59M in total volume and $3.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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