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Resolved market · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on By September 30, By December 31, By October 31, after $1.56M of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30 | 100% | +73.5 pts | $1.30M |
| By December 31 | 100% | +50.0 pts | $179.7K |
| By October 31 | 100% | +54.9 pts | $83.0K |
Total volume $1.56M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By September 30 ■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies.
Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · AI odds · Politics odds
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on By September 30, By December 31, By October 31, after $1.56M of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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