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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marco Rubio at 29.5%, followed by Greg Abbott at 17.2%, Marjorie Taylor Greene at 6.3%. The market has $50.1K in total volume and $739 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 29.5% | — | $11.3K |
| Greg Abbott | 17.2% | +12.4 pts | $767 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 6.3% | -0.1 pts | $2.5K |
| J.D. Vance | 5.5% | — | $4.1K |
| Thomas Massie | 5.1% | — | $1.1K |
| Donald Trump | 4.7% | -0.2 pts | $2.4K |
| Ivanka Trump | 4.0% | -2.4 pts | $688 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.0% | -1.7 pts | $1.9K |
| Josh Hawley | 2.9% | -2.2 pts | $845 |
| Elon Musk | 2.7% | +1.9 pts | $623 |
| Joe Kent | 2.6% | -1.4 pts | $925 |
| John Thune | 2.5% | +2.1 pts | $1.2K |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2.4% | +0.1 pts | $888 |
| Kristi Noem | 2.3% | — | $589 |
| Ted Cruz | 2.1% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K |
20 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $50.1K · 24h volume $739 · Liquidity $1.30M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Marco Rubio ■ Greg Abbott ■ Marjorie Taylor Greene · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marco Rubio at 29.5%, followed by Greg Abbott at 17.2%, Marjorie Taylor Greene at 6.3%. The market has $50.1K in total volume and $739 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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