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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Luca Niculescu at 43.8%, followed by Sorin Grindeanu at 12.4%, Alexandru Nazare at 10.7%. The market has $4.77M in total volume and $318.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Niculescu | 43.8% | +35.1 pts | $70.5K |
| Sorin Grindeanu | 12.4% | -9.2 pts | $615.7K |
| Alexandru Nazare | 10.7% | -24.3 pts | $406.5K |
| Alexandru Rogobete | 1.9% | +0.3 pts | $98.6K |
| Ilie Bolojan | 1.9% | -2.8 pts | $239.0K |
| Eugen Tomac | 1.7% | -7.5 pts | $349.9K |
| George Simion | 1.5% | +0.4 pts | $75.4K |
| Leonardo Badea | 0.9% | -5.6 pts | $59.8K |
| Victor Ponta | 0.7% | +0.2 pts | $92.1K |
| Radu Burnete | 0.5% | -1.9 pts | $116.1K |
| Cătălin Predoiu | 0.4% | -1.5 pts | $175.9K |
| Siegfried Mureșan | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $256.2K |
| Delia Velculescu | 0.4% | -0.7 pts | $116.1K |
| Dan Motreanu | 0.2% | -3.6 pts | $100.5K |
| Șerban Matei | 0.2% | -0.5 pts | $97.3K |
23 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $4.77M · 24h volume $318.5K · Liquidity $1.37M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Luca Niculescu ■ Sorin Grindeanu ■ Alexandru Nazare · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Luca Niculescu at 43.8%, followed by Sorin Grindeanu at 12.4%, Alexandru Nazare at 10.7%. The market has $4.77M in total volume and $318.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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