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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: November 23, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kyle Larson at 46.1%, followed by Denny Hamlin at 28%, Christopher Bell at 9.3%. The market has $58.3K in total volume and $1.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 46.1% | -1.7 pts | $4.0K |
| Denny Hamlin | 28% | +7.5 pts | $23.1K |
| Christopher Bell | 9.3% | -0.1 pts | $1.5K |
| Joey Logano | 6.8% | +0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| Ryan Blaney | 5.5% | -2.5 pts | $9.1K |
| Chase Briscoe | 4.0% | +0.9 pts | $423 |
| Chase Elliott | 2.4% | +0.8 pts | $293 |
| Bubba Wallace | 2.1% | -0.4 pts | $602 |
| Carson Hocevar | 1.6% | +0.5 pts | $1.3K |
| Ty Gibbs | 1.2% | -0.4 pts | $436 |
| Tyler Reddick | 1.1% | — | $5.7K |
| Daniel Suarez | 0.2% | — | $358 |
| William Byron | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $309 |
| Austin Cindric | 0.1% | — | $379 |
| Ryan Preece | 0.1% | — | $359 |
21 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $58.3K · 24h volume $1.1K · Liquidity $32.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Kyle Larson ■ Denny Hamlin ■ Christopher Bell · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by NASCAR to determine the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the rules of NASCAR (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASCAR.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Sports odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kyle Larson at 46.1%, followed by Denny Hamlin at 28%, Christopher Bell at 9.3%. The market has $58.3K in total volume and $1.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 23, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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