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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 115-120m at 30%, followed by 110-115m at 17.5%, 120-125m at 17%. The market has $34.0K in total volume and $383 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115-120m | 30% | -1.5 pts | $6.5K |
| 110-115m | 17.5% | — | $5.2K |
| 120-125m | 17% | -1.0 pts | $10.2K |
| 125-130m | 13.5% | -1.5 pts | $3.9K |
| 130m+ | 12.3% | +0.3 pts | $2.3K |
| 105-110m | 7.9% | -0.5 pts | $996 |
| 100-105m | 4.2% | -0.4 pts | $1.3K |
| 90-95m | 2.6% | -0.5 pts | $1.9K |
| 95-100m | 2.5% | -0.4 pts | $410 |
| <85m | 0.2% | — | $667 |
| 85-90m | 0.1% | — | $701 |
Total volume $34.0K · 24h volume $383 · Liquidity $218.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 115-120m ■ 110-115m ■ 120-125m · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 115-120m at 30%, followed by 110-115m at 17.5%, 120-125m at 17%. The market has $34.0K in total volume and $383 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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