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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is John Brennan at 23.5%, followed by Mahmoud Khalil at 18.5%, Lee Jun-seok at 11.7%. The market has $481.4K in total volume and $4.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 23.5% | — | $31.0K |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18.5% | — | $2.5K |
| Lee Jun-seok | 11.7% | +0.6 pts | $814 |
| Brandon Johnson | 10% | — | $3.4K |
| James Comey | 9.9% | +0.5 pts | $18.0K |
| Tom Homan | 8.4% | — | $47.0K |
| Susan Rice | 8.0% | — | $769 |
| Anthony Fauci | 7.7% | -0.1 pts | $184.6K |
| James Clapper | 7.0% | — | $8.8K |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 7.0% | -0.1 pts | $3.9K |
| Candace Owens | 6.9% | — | $327 |
| Pam Bondi | 5.0% | +0.1 pts | $3.6K |
| Letitia James | 4.1% | -0.1 pts | $5.6K |
| Lisa Cook | 3.8% | +0.2 pts | $4.1K |
| Adam Schiff | 3.5% | +0.2 pts | $17.3K |
9 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $481.4K · 24h volume $4.6K · Liquidity $470.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ John Brennan ■ Mahmoud Khalil ■ Lee Jun-seok · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is John Brennan at 23.5%, followed by Mahmoud Khalil at 18.5%, Lee Jun-seok at 11.7%. The market has $481.4K in total volume and $4.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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