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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 2, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Raphael Warnock at 12.3%, followed by Thom Tillis at 11.5%, Jacky Rosen at 9.6%. The market has $216.7K in total volume and $184 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raphael Warnock | 12.3% | — | $3.1K |
| Thom Tillis | 11.5% | — | $21.3K |
| Jacky Rosen | 9.6% | — | $24.7K |
| Mike Lee | 9.5% | — | $14.9K |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 9.5% | — | $6.4K |
| Josh Hawley | 9.0% | -0.1 pts | $31.9K |
| John Fetterman | 8.9% | — | $12.2K |
| Alex Padilla | 8.1% | -0.1 pts | $7.3K |
| Andy Kim | 8.1% | +0.4 pts | $3.8K |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 7.5% | — | $6.7K |
| Rand Paul | 6.5% | — | $23.9K |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 6.5% | — | $5.6K |
| Mark Warner | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $25.0K |
| Jerry Moran | 1.8% | -0.2 pts | $13.2K |
| Ruben Gallego | 1.7% | -0.4 pts | $16.6K |
Total volume $216.7K · 24h volume $184 · Liquidity $89.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Raphael Warnock ■ Thom Tillis ■ Jacky Rosen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Crypto Regulation odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Raphael Warnock at 12.3%, followed by Thom Tillis at 11.5%, Jacky Rosen at 9.6%. The market has $216.7K in total volume and $184 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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