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Crypto Regulation Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 22 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 22 live Crypto Regulation markets with $341.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (Yes 4.9%), followed by Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? (Yes 4.0%), US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? (Yes 14.7%).

Crypto laws and regulation: market-structure bills, stablecoin rules and enforcement. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Crypto Regulation markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes 4.9%-0.1 pts$339.3KJan 1, 2027
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?Yes 4.0%-1.0 pts$564Jan 1, 2027
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?Yes 14.7%-4.0 pts$449Jan 1, 2027
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?USD0 9.0%-13.5 pts$370Jan 1, 2027
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes 30.5%+4.5 pts$261Jan 1, 2027
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Above 60 8.5%—$214Jan 2, 2027
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Raphael Warnock 12.3%—$184Jan 2, 2027
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Yes 1.7%+0.1 pts$179Jan 1, 2027
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes 8.5%-1.0 pts$140Jan 1, 2027
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?December 31, 2026 2.1%-0.1 pts$16Jan 1, 2027
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by ___?December 31, 2026 27%-0.5 pts$14Jan 1, 2027
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?Yes 5.5%—$9Jan 1, 2027
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Yes 6.7%—$0Jan 1, 2027
SBF released from custody in 2026?Yes 1.6%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Will USDT market cap hit $200B by ___?December 31, 2026 45.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Tom Lee charged by December 31?Yes 2.3%-0.2 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Ben Pasternak jailed?Yes 2.9%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Senate passes Clarity Act?By October 31 1.2%+0.1 pts$0Nov 1, 2026
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?Yes 7.0%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026?Yes 10%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Eric Adams charged by December 31?Yes 17.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes 7.0%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

Raphael Warnock · John Fetterman · Josh Hawley · Rand Paul · Ruben Gallego · Alex Padilla

More Crypto odds

Bitcoin (92) · Ethereum (96) · Solana (95) · XRP (87) · Crypto Prices (161) · Token Launches & FDV (163)

Frequently asked questions

What are the Crypto Regulation odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 22 live Crypto Regulation markets with $341.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (Yes 4.9%), followed by Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? (Yes 4.0%), US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? (Yes 14.7%).

How many Crypto Regulation markets are open on Polymarket?

22 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Crypto Regulation odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/crypto-regulation/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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