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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is AI-chip export licensing at 31%, followed by Export-control chip security at 30%, Credit-card routing competition at 25.2%. The market has $172.5K in total volume and $436 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing for the 21st Century Act (settled) | 100% | — | $46.0K |
| AI-chip export licensing | 31% | +1.0 pts | $2.6K |
| Export-control chip security | 30% | -0.5 pts | $2.3K |
| Credit-card routing competition | 25.2% | +11.3 pts | $198 |
| Film/TV production expensing | 14.4% | +3.8 pts | $2.4K |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 14% | +1.5 pts | $1.5K |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 13.5% | — | $106.8K |
| Data center utility cost protection | 12.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.1K |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 11.3% | +0.1 pts | $3.8K |
| $2.50 Coin | 8.5% | +1.0 pts | $597 |
| NO FAKES Act | 8.0% | -5.0 pts | $402 |
| DEFIANCE Act | 4.8% | -0.1 pts | $893 |
| SHOWER Act | 4.2% | -0.4 pts | $656 |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 2.9% | -0.7 pts | $434 |
| Trump Airport | 2.4% | -0.4 pts | $1.8K |
Total volume $172.5K · 24h volume $436 · Liquidity $116.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ AI-chip export licensing ■ Export-control chip security ■ Credit-card routing competition · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is AI-chip export licensing at 31%, followed by Export-control chip security at 30%, Credit-card routing competition at 25.2%. The market has $172.5K in total volume and $436 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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