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Polymarket week in review: September 21 – September 27, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update September 27, 12:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of September 21 – September 27, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka? — By December 31 5.2% → 95.8% (+90.5 points). 24 new markets opened in the seven days to September 27.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka?	By December 31	5.2%	95.8%	+90.5 pts
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?	Xiaomi	<0.1%	87.9%	+87.9 pts
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?	Alibaba	8.1%	93.1%	+85.0 pts
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?	OpenAI	17.1%	97.7%	+80.6 pts
MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)	Houston Astros	1.1%	79.2%	+78.1 pts
MLB Wins Leader (2026)	Sonny Gray	28.5%	99.3%	+70.8 pts
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner	Uzbekistan	30%	99.9%+	+70.0 pts
MLB: Batting Average Leader	Yordan Alvarez	30%	98.4%	+68.3 pts
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?	$7.50+	24.6%	89.7%	+65.1 pts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?	5.50%	2.6%	61.5%	+58.9 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?	OpenAI	76.8%	1.2%	-75.6 pts
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?	↑ $4,400	90.5%	19.6%	-70.9 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?	↓ $760	89%	25%	-64.0 pts
Who will Trump meet with in September?	Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	61%	1.8%	-59.2 pts
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in September 2026?	↓ $180	79.5%	21%	-58.5 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in September?	↓ 2,600	87%	29%	-58.0 pts
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in September 2026?	↓ $360	87%	31.5%	-55.5 pts
Who will Trump speak to in September?	Lula da Silva	61.5%	7.0%	-54.5 pts
Next Romania PM appointed by…?	December 31	90.2%	39.1%	-51.1 pts
MLB: RBIs Leader	Sal Stewart	52.9%	2.4%	-50.6 pts

New markets

→ Trump renames AI? By December 31 59.5%
→ 'The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore' First Week Album Sales? 200k+ 74.5%
→ Will Bitget resume withdrawals by ___? October 31, 2026 99.6%
→ US Announces Diesel Export ban? By October 31 10.5%
→ Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? By December 31, 2026 59.5%
→ Taylor Swift "Patient Zero" First Week Streams? 50m+ 82.5%
→ Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 65.5%
→ Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? No Meeting by December 31 40%
→ Total commitments for the Jumper ($JUMP) public sale on Legion >1M 99.5%
→ Which party will win white voters in the midterms? Republicans 90.5%
→ LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory? Raman 4-8% 18%
→ US-Yemen ceasefire continues? Through September 25 99.6%
→ Pakistan military action against Afghanistan? By October 31 80.5%
→ Surigae makes landfall in Japan? Yes 2.9%
→ Taylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31? ↑ 110m 50.5%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

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