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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.5% (No 94.5%), with $224.6K traded in total and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.5% | +3.1 pts | $224.6K |
| No | 94.5% | -3.1 pts | — |
Total volume $224.6K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: United Kingdom odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.5% (No 94.5%), with $224.6K traded in total and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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