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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is The Black Ball at 42.5%, followed by The Invite at 29%, The Odyssey at 17.5%. The market has $31.1K in total volume and $244 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Black Ball | 42.5% | +0.5 pts | $17.6K |
| The Invite | 29% | +4.0 pts | $5.5K |
| The Odyssey | 17.5% | +1.5 pts | $2.8K |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 6.2% | — | $419 |
| The Social Reckoning | 5.1% | — | $289 |
| Project Hail Mary | 4.7% | — | $504 |
| All of a Sudden | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $657 |
| Wildwood | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $569 |
| Dune: Part Three | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $450 |
| Saturn Return | 1.7% | — | $395 |
| Cry to Heaven | 0.8% | — | $245 |
| Toy Story 5 | 0.6% | — | $366 |
| Clarissa | 0.5% | — | $205 |
| The Whisper Man | 0.4% | — | $230 |
| Ink | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $886 |
Total volume $31.1K · 24h volume $244 · Liquidity $17.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ The Black Ball ■ The Invite ■ The Odyssey · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Awards odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is The Black Ball at 42.5%, followed by The Invite at 29%, The Odyssey at 17.5%. The market has $31.1K in total volume and $244 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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