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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jack Lowden at 37.2%, followed by Callum Turner at 23%, No Bond chosen at 18.9%. The market has $1.36M in total volume and $14.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Lowden | 37.2% | -1.1 pts | $248.0K |
| Callum Turner | 23% | +5.7 pts | $94.8K |
| No Bond chosen | 18.9% | -6.9 pts | $532.5K |
| Jack Barton | 8.2% | +1.1 pts | $59.7K |
| Jack O'Connell | 7.7% | +0.2 pts | $35.6K |
| Paul Mescal | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $19.6K |
| Jacob Elordi | 2.2% | +1.4 pts | $24.7K |
| Tom Francis | 1.3% | +0.2 pts | $25.3K |
| Harris Dickinson | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $29.7K |
| Josh O'Connor | 0.4% | — | $20.9K |
| Henry Cavill | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $20.2K |
| James Norton | 0.4% | +0.2 pts | $24.5K |
| Theo James | 0.4% | — | $38.9K |
| Richard Madden | 0.4% | — | $21.6K |
| Tom Holland | 0.4% | — | $18.3K |
9 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.36M · 24h volume $14.1K · Liquidity $235.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Jack Lowden ■ Callum Turner ■ No Bond chosen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jack Lowden at 37.2%, followed by Callum Turner at 23%, No Bond chosen at 18.9%. The market has $1.36M in total volume and $14.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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