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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2029
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Giorgia Meloni at 55%, followed by Elly Schlein at 17%, Giuseppe Conte at 13%. The market has $92.2K in total volume and $556 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgia Meloni | 55% | +1.5 pts | $12.4K |
| Elly Schlein | 17% | — | $6.4K |
| Giuseppe Conte | 13% | — | $5.7K |
| Roberto Vannacci | 8.3% | — | $38.2K |
| Silvia Salis | 4.7% | +0.1 pts | $10.5K |
| Mario Draghi | 1.1% | +0.4 pts | $3.2K |
| Matteo Renzi | 0.9% | — | $2.5K |
| Matteo Salvini | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $4.8K |
| Angelo Bonelli | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.3K |
| Carlo Calenda | 0.4% | — | $2.3K |
| Antonio Tajani | 0.4% | — | $2.3K |
| Guido Crosetto | 0.2% | — | $1.6K |
Total volume $92.2K · 24h volume $556 · Liquidity $182.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Giorgia Meloni ■ Elly Schlein ■ Giuseppe Conte · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Giorgia Meloni at 55%, followed by Elly Schlein at 17%, Giuseppe Conte at 13%. The market has $92.2K in total volume and $556 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2029. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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