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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: June 2, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Abiy Ahmed at 99.4%, followed by Gedion Timothewos at 0.5%, Demeke Mekonnen at 0.5%. The market has $286.13M in total volume and $62.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abiy Ahmed | 99.4% | +2.0 pts | $194.5K |
| Gedion Timothewos | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $55.95M |
| Demeke Mekonnen | 0.5% | -0.6 pts | $29.34M |
| Shimelis Abdisa | 0.3% | — | $41.59M |
| Adanech Abiebie | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $83.46M |
| Belete Molla | <0.1% | -0.4 pts | $32.29M |
| Berhanu Nega | <0.1% | -0.2 pts | $29.71M |
| Alesa Mengesha | <0.1% | -0.4 pts | $13.59M |
Total volume $286.13M · 24h volume $62.0K · Liquidity $223.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Abiy Ahmed ■ Gedion Timothewos ■ Demeke Mekonnen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Abiy Ahmed at 99.4%, followed by Gedion Timothewos at 0.5%, Demeke Mekonnen at 0.5%. The market has $286.13M in total volume and $62.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 2, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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