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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 29, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jess Wilson at 79%, followed by Ben Carroll at 14.2%, Danny O'Brien at 5.5%. The market has $24.9K in total volume and $5 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Wilson | 79% | — | $5.7K |
| Ben Carroll | 14.2% | -1.1 pts | $5.0K |
| Danny O'Brien | 5.5% | +0.2 pts | $2.6K |
| Jacinta Allan | 4.7% | +0.1 pts | $507 |
| David Southwick | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $353 |
| Warren Pickering | 3.0% | -0.4 pts | $2.0K |
| Sonya Kilkenny | 0.4% | — | $399 |
| Gabrielle Williams | 0.4% | — | $345 |
| Sam Groth | 0.2% | — | $1.3K |
| James Newbury | 0.2% | — | $1.3K |
| Emma Kealy | 0.2% | — | $1.3K |
| Steve Dimopoulos | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $378 |
| Jaclyn Symes | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
| Ellen Sandell | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
| Brad Battin | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
Total volume $24.9K · 24h volume $5 · Liquidity $251.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Jess Wilson ■ Ben Carroll ■ Danny O'Brien · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jess Wilson at 79%, followed by Ben Carroll at 14.2%, Danny O'Brien at 5.5%. The market has $24.9K in total volume and $5 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 29, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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