Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 14.5%. The market has $996.7K in total volume and $211 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 14.5% | +3.0 pts | $333.4K |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $207.5K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $193.4K |
| By November 14 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $104.9K |
| By March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.0 pts | $91.5K |
| By November 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $65.9K |
Total volume $996.7K · 24h volume $211 · Liquidity $11.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 14.5%. The market has $996.7K in total volume and $211 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="India strike on Pakistan? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan/">India strike on Pakistan? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “India strike on Pakistan? — Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/india-strike-on-pakistan.svg" alt="India strike on Pakistan? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog