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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 24, 2025
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fernando Dias da Costa at 14.8%, followed by Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 14.6%, José Mário Vaz at 2.1%. The market has $341.5K in total volume and $65 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Dias da Costa | 14.8% | -3.5 pts | $59.0K |
| Umaro Sissoco Embaló | 14.6% | +0.9 pts | $91.2K |
| José Mário Vaz | 2.1% | — | $22.5K |
| João Bernardo Vieira | 1.6% | — | $16.9K |
| Mamadu Iaia Djaló | 1.6% | — | $20.0K |
| Gabriel Fernando Indi | 1.6% | — | $19.5K |
| Baciro Djá | 1.6% | — | $14.8K |
| Mário da Silva Júnior | 1.5% | — | $18.4K |
| Siga Batista | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $26.2K |
| Honório Augusto Lopes | 1.3% | — | $18.8K |
| João de Deus Mendes | 1.1% | — | $17.9K |
| Herculano Armando Bequinsa | 0.9% | — | $16.5K |
Total volume $341.5K · 24h volume $65 · Liquidity $116.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Fernando Dias da Costa ■ Umaro Sissoco Embaló ■ José Mário Vaz · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fernando Dias da Costa at 14.8%, followed by Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 14.6%, José Mário Vaz at 2.1%. The market has $341.5K in total volume and $65 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 24, 2025. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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