{
 "updated": "2026-10-06T01:27:03+00:00",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-odds/"
 },
 "meetings": [
  {
   "meeting": "October 27–28, 2026",
   "market": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
   "implied_change_bps": 4.85,
   "outcomes": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.0015,
    "Cut 25": 0.0035,
    "No change": 0.805,
    "Hike 25": 0.195,
    "Hike 50+": 0.0035
   },
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT",
   "kalshi": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.01,
    "Cut 25": 0.01,
    "No change": 0.795,
    "Hike 25": 0.20500000000000002,
    "Hike 50+": 0.01
   }
  },
  {
   "meeting": "December 8–9, 2026",
   "market": "fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632",
   "implied_change_bps": 19.36,
   "outcomes": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.0035,
    "Cut 25": 0.0115,
    "No change": 0.225,
    "Hike 25": 0.745,
    "Hike 50+": 0.0295
   },
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC",
   "kalshi": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.01,
    "Cut 25": 0.015,
    "No change": 0.255,
    "Hike 25": 0.735,
    "Hike 50+": 0.025
   }
  },
  {
   "meeting": "January 26–27, 2027",
   "market": "fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502",
   "implied_change_bps": 9.26,
   "outcomes": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.0125,
    "Cut 25": 0.0245,
    "No change": 0.575,
    "Hike 25": 0.375,
    "Hike 50+": 0.0245
   },
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN",
   "kalshi": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.01,
    "Cut 25": 0.04,
    "No change": 0.615,
    "Hike 25": 0.37,
    "Hike 50+": 0.015
   }
  }
 ],
 "path": [
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Pause–Hike",
   "price": 0.595
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Pause–Pause",
   "price": 0.215
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Hike–Hike",
   "price": 0.13
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Hike–Pause",
   "price": 0.0325
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Other",
   "price": 0.0345
  }
 ],
 "cuts": [
  {
   "outcome": "0 (0 bps)",
   "price": 0.9585
  },
  {
   "outcome": "1 (25 bps)",
   "price": 0.017
  }
 ],
 "hikes": [],
 "year_end": [
  {
   "outcome": "3.5%",
   "price": 0.016
  },
  {
   "outcome": "3.75%",
   "price": 0.012
  },
  {
   "outcome": "4.0%",
   "price": 0.181
  },
  {
   "outcome": "4.25%",
   "price": 0.5965
  },
  {
   "outcome": "≥ 4.5%",
   "price": 0.095
  }
 ],
 "first_cut": [
  {
   "outcome": "December 2026 Meeting",
   "price": 0.0445
  },
  {
   "outcome": "January 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.07
  },
  {
   "outcome": "March 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.22
  },
  {
   "outcome": "April 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.295
  },
  {
   "outcome": "June 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.36
  },
  {
   "outcome": "July 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.53
  }
 ]
}