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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 29.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 4.0%. The market has $647.6K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 29.5% | -20.0 pts | $117 |
| By December 31, 2026 | 4.0% | -0.5 pts | $647.5K |
Total volume $647.6K · 24h volume $3.3K · Liquidity $31.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 29.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 4.0%. The market has $647.6K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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