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Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:28 UTC · refreshed twice a day · daily markets settle at noon ET
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on October 6 at about $85,859 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $84,850–$87,029. They give 46.5% to BTC above $86,000 and 4.7% to BTC above $88,000; the single most likely range is $84,000–$86,000 (52%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 75.5%.
| Noon ET on | Median | 50% range | 80% range | Chance of up day | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 6 | $85,859 | $84,850–$87,029 | $84,244–$87,746 | 75.5% | $597.2K |
| October 7 | $85,904 | $84,699–$87,296 | $83,886–$88,498 | 50.5% | $162.0K |
| October 8 | $85,848 | $84,333–$87,500 | $82,746–$89,149 | — | $71.9K |
| October 9 | $85,864 | $84,169–$87,704 | $82,387–$89,833 | — | $49.6K |
| October 10 | $85,857 | $84,071–$87,917 | $82,303–$90,000 | — | $17.6K |
| October 11 | $85,920 | $83,879–$88,074 | $82,061–$90,556 | — | $3.4K |
| October 12 | $85,833 | $83,613–$88,357 | $81,286–$91,000 | — | $534 |
Median and ranges are read off each day's "above" ladder: the price where the chance of closing above it is 50% (median), 75%–25% (50% range) and 90%–10% (80% range).
| Price | Chance above | |
|---|---|---|
| $82,000 | 99.2% | |
| $84,000 | 96% | |
| $86,000 | 46.5% | |
| $88,000 | 4.7% | |
| $90,000 | 1.4% |
| Range | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000–$82,000 | 0.7% | |
| $82,000–$84,000 | 3.3% | |
| $84,000–$86,000 | 52% | |
| $86,000–$88,000 | 40% | |
| $88,000–$90,000 | 3.0% | |
| $90,000–$92,000 | 1.1% | |
| above $92,000 | 0.5% |
Bitcoin has already reached $86,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $94,000 | 3.1% |
| ↑ reach $92,000 | 10.5% |
| ↑ reach $90,000 | 23.5% |
| ↑ reach $88,000 | 54.5% |
| ↓ dip to $84,000 | 57.5% |
| ↓ dip to $82,000 | 23.5% |
| ↓ dip to $80,000 | 8.5% |
| ↓ dip to $78,000 | 3.8% |
Bitcoin has already reached $85,000; already dipped to $85,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $105,000 | 4.9% |
| ↑ reach $102,500 | 6.5% |
| ↑ reach $100,000 | 11.5% |
| ↑ reach $97,500 | 15.5% |
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 26.5% |
| ↑ reach $92,500 | 40.5% |
| ↑ reach $90,000 | 59.5% |
| ↑ reach $87,500 | 81.5% |
| ↓ dip to $82,500 | 64.5% |
| ↓ dip to $80,000 | 43.5% |
| ↓ dip to $77,500 | 26.5% |
| ↓ dip to $75,000 | 17.5% |
Bitcoin has already reached $90,000; already dipped to $60,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $160,000 | 2.1% |
| ↑ reach $150,000 | 2.6% |
| ↑ reach $140,000 | 3.1% |
| ↑ reach $130,000 | 4.8% |
| ↑ reach $120,000 | 8.5% |
| ↑ reach $110,000 | 17.5% |
| ↑ reach $100,000 | 35.5% |
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 56.5% |
| ↓ dip to $70,000 | 27.5% |
| ↓ dip to $55,000 | 7.5% |
| ↓ dip to $50,000 | 5.5% |
| ↓ dip to $45,000 | 3.6% |
Educational information, not financial advice. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not quotes you can trade at.
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Polymarket View, “Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction from Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/bitcoin-price-prediction/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on October 6 at about $85,859 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $84,850–$87,029. They give 46.5% to BTC above $86,000 and 4.7% to BTC above $88,000; the single most likely range is $84,000–$86,000 (52%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 75.5%.
From Polymarket's daily "Bitcoin above ___ on <date>?" markets, which settle on the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle close at 12:00 ET. Each strike's Yes price is the market's chance that BTC closes above it; the median is where that chance crosses 50%, and the 50% range runs from the 75% to the 25% strike.
Polymarket's "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 6" market gives 75.5% to up versus the previous day's noon ET close.
Daily price ladders track volatility, not a forecast of direction: the implied range is as wide as traders think the next day's moves can be. Our accuracy study measures how often Polymarket favourites win across resolved markets: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/crypto-prices.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Binance.