September 2026 Fed Decision: 25 bp Hike to 3.75%–4.00%
The settled September 16, 2026 decision record: the official statement outcome, the market’s resolution, the complete released-data timeline, resolution rules, and FAQs.
Published July 17, 2026 · Updated September 17, 2026 (post-decision settlement record) · Meeting: September 15–16, 2026 · Decision: 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, September 16 · Next planned refresh: settlement confirmation check, ~September 24
The answer first
The Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at the close of its September 15–16, 2026 meeting — the statement went out Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 p.m. EDT with a 12–0 vote, in contrast to July’s 9–3 hold. The Committee said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace while inflation remains elevated, and that the action “will support a timelier return” to its 2 percent goal; the implementation note lifted the interest rate on reserve balances to 3.90 percent effective September 17. Polymarket’s Fed Decision in September? event then settled exactly the way its rules name: the 25-basis-point increase bucket resolved to Yes at $1.00, the other four buckets closed at zero, and the event finished with roughly $208.0 million in cumulative volume, up from $136.7 million at the final pre-decision check — when the board priced the hike at 78.5%, a strong favorite that was never a certainty. The next scheduled meeting is October 27–28; its live event showed a displayed 53.5% no-change vs 46.5% for another 25 bp hike at the September 17 snapshot. This page now records the settled outcome, the market’s resolution record, and the rulebook that governed them.
What changed after the July 29 FOMC decision
The target range stayed at 3.50%–3.75%
The Committee maintained the target range for the federal funds rate and said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated relative to its 2% goal. This is the official starting level for the next scheduled policy cycle unless an intervening action changes it.
The vote was 9–3
Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voted against the action because they preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The dissents document disagreement at the July meeting; they do not determine how any participant will vote in September.
An exact September market is now verifiable
The earlier version of this page had only an annual cut-count market for context. The August 3 review confirmed a separate event titled Fed Decision in September? with five meeting-specific outcome contracts, so the canonical page can now explain the actual September resolution surface.
The data path is dateable
BLS and BEA calendars now provide a sequence of employment, inflation, productivity, and personal-income releases between the July and September meetings. These are research checkpoints, not mechanical predictors of the decision.
September FOMC timeline: official checkpoints
The Committee maintained the 3.50%–3.75% target range by a 9–3 vote. The statement, rather than commentary about it, establishes the post-July policy baseline.
The BLS schedule lists the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10:00 a.m. ET. Openings, hires, quits, and revisions describe labor demand but are not the same measure as payroll growth.
The BLS reported nonfarm payroll employment down 23,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Temporary layoffs rose by 153,000. Labor-force participation was 61.4%. The weak payrolls print adds a new data point to the September policy picture. The 2026 jobs report calendar tracks the full release schedule.
The BLS reported headline CPI up 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year; core CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year. Both Polymarket core-CPI markets resolved to the 0.2% and 2.5% buckets. The 2026 CPI release-date guide separates month-over-month, year-over-year, headline, and core measures.
The BLS reported the Producer Price Index for final demand unchanged in July (0.0% month over month, +4.7% year over year); final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. PPI measures a different price surface from CPI and should not be substituted for the metric named in another contract.
The BEA reported the PCE price index up 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year; excluding food and energy it also rose 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year. Personal income increased 0.4% and the personal saving rate was 3.0%. PCE is the inflation measure the FOMC names in its statement framework.
Job openings were little changed at 7.3 million (4.4% rate); June openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million. Openings describe labor demand, not payroll growth.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, the unemployment rate held at 4.1% for a second month, labor-force participation rose to 61.6%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.3% to $37.75. July’s initially reported −23,000 was revised up to +21,000. This was the final scheduled employment report before the meeting; the 2026 jobs report calendar tracks the full release schedule.
The BLS reported the Producer Price Index for final demand up 0.4% month over month (July +0.1%) and 5.4% year over year; final demand goods rose 1.1% on a 4.2% jump in energy prices, services edged up 0.1%, and final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% month over month and 4.7% year over year (release USDL 26-1495). PPI measures a different price surface from CPI and should not be substituted for the metric named in another contract.
The BLS reported headline CPI up 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year; core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and slowed to 2.4% year over year from 2.5%. Gasoline rose 3.9% month over month and accounted for over a third of the monthly increase (release USDL-26-1496). This was the final scheduled release before the meeting; the 2026 CPI release-date guide tracks the full calendar and the settled August markets.
The Committee raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% with a 12–0 vote, announced Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The market rules named that FOMC statement as the primary resolution source, and the prediction-market board settled against the written statement: the 25 bp increase bucket resolved Yes, the other four closed at zero.
This is where dated attention rotates next: the live October event already shows a displayed 53.5% no-change vs 46.5% for another 25 bp hike (September 17 snapshot, about $5.8 million volume) after the September hike reset the baseline to 3.75%–4.00%. The dedicated October 2026 Fed meeting guide tracks that decision's calendar, markets, and rules.
Calendar caution: agency schedules can change. Recheck the Federal Reserve, BLS, and BEA pages before using any date operationally; this page records the schedules verified through September 17, 2026.
Settled: how the September market resolved
The exact Gamma event Fed Decision in September? was rechecked on September 17, 2026 at 14:02 UTC, the day after the decision. It is closed: all five component contracts stopped trading, the event finished with approximately $208.02 million in cumulative volume ($42.16 million on the winning 25 bp increase contract, $56.44 million on no change, $56.26 million on the 25 bp decrease, $33.43 million on the 50+ bp increase, and $19.74 million on the 50+ bp decrease), and the 25-basis-point increase bucket resolved to Yes at $1.00 while the other four closed at $0. The settlement matches the named resolution source — the September 16 FOMC statement — exactly as the rules required. That final volume clears the project’s pilot demand floor by three orders of magnitude and confirms this canonical page as the September record; the dated October 27–28 intent belongs to the October 2026 Fed meeting guide.
Settlement is a different state from a pre-event probability: a contract closing at $1.00 does not mean the outcome had been certain before the decision. The first table below records the final settlement state; the second table preserves the September 12 pre-decision board as the historical observation. Anyone researching a live board should open the source event, record bid and ask rather than only the last trade, and timestamp the observation.
| Outcome | Settled | Final contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| 50+ bp decrease | No ($0) | $19,739,407 |
| 25 bp decrease | No ($0) | $56,255,119 |
| No change | No ($0) | $56,435,145 |
| 25 bp increase | Yes ($1.00) | $42,158,279 |
| 50+ bp increase | No ($0) | $33,434,868 |
| Outcome | Displayed YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bp decrease | 0.05% | — / 0.1¢ | $15,680,054 |
| 25 bp decrease | 0.35% | 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ | $38,456,190 |
| No change | 20.50% | 20¢ / 21¢ | $35,444,523 |
| 25 bp increase | 78.50% | 78¢ / 79¢ | $27,979,729 |
| 50+ bp increase | 0.65% | 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ | $19,138,739 |
The five displayed YES prices summed to 100.05% at the check time — displayed last prices are not a normalized probability set, and volume is not probability. Record bid, ask, depth, and time when researching the live board.
50+ bps decrease
A meeting-specific contract for a decrease of at least 50 basis points in the upper bound of the target range.
25 bps decrease
The listed decrease bucket for a 25-basis-point move under the event's rounding rule.
No change
The bucket for an unchanged upper bound after the September decision, including the event's stated no-statement fallback.
25 bps increase
The listed increase bucket for a 25-basis-point move under the same measurement convention.
50+ bps increase
A meeting-specific contract for an increase of at least 50 basis points in the upper bound.
The five labels form the event inventory, but each visible market is still a yes/no contract with its own order book. Compare the full board, spreads, and depth instead of interpreting one last-traded price in isolation. The prediction-market odds explainer and risk-management guide cover the difference between a displayed price, an executable quote, and a settled outcome.
What changed since the September 12 snapshot
The hike arrived unanimously
The Committee raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% by a 12–0 vote — no dissents, in contrast to July’s 9–3 hold. Every voting member supported the increase, including the three who had dissented in July in favor of exactly this 25-basis-point move.
The market settled to the statement
The 25 bp increase bucket resolved to Yes at $1.00, and the event closed with about $208.0 million in cumulative volume, up from $136.7 million at the September 12 check. Roughly $71 million traded across the final four days and the settlement itself.
A 78.5% favorite won — that was never a certainty
The final pre-decision board showed 78.5% for the hike vs 20.5% for no change. The settlement matched the favorite, but a 78.5% price still implied roughly a 1-in-5 chance of the other outcome. Displayed prices are observations, not guarantees, and this cycle is a clean worked example.
Attention rotates to October 27–28
The next scheduled meeting owns the next dated search wave. At the September 17 snapshot the October event showed a displayed 53.5% no-change vs 46.5% for another 25 bp hike, on about $5.8 million of volume — the new baseline is the post-hike 3.75%–4.00% range. The October 2026 Fed meeting guide tracks it.
How the September Fed market resolves
1. The measured rate is the upper bound
The reviewed wording defines the Fed interest rate as the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Do not substitute the midpoint, lower bound, effective federal funds rate, or a futures-implied rate.
2. The comparison is meeting-specific
The event measures how much that upper bound changes versus its level before the September 2026 meeting. It is not a full-year count of moves.
3. The written buckets control
The displayed outcomes are 50+ down, 25 down, no change, 25 up, and 50+ up. A reader should verify that these labels and the description remain unchanged before relying on them.
4. Unlisted moves are rounded up
The event says a change not expressed in the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points; its example treats a 12.5-basis-point move as 25 basis points. This wording matters for an unusual increment.
5. The FOMC statement is primary
The resolution source named in the event is the FOMC statement following the September 15–16 meeting. The Federal Reserve's target-rate history is also cited.
6. Resolution may occur when the statement appears
The event may resolve once the September statement provides the relevant data. Commentary, a press report, or a prediction-market price is not the named official source.
7. The fallback reaches the next meeting
If no relevant statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the reviewed event says it resolves to the no-change bracket. That edge case should not be omitted from a scenario map.
8. Do not import annual-market rules
The separate 2026 cut-count event explicitly counts emergency moves and 25-basis-point equivalents. The September event has its own meeting-specific wording, so its rulebook must be read independently.
That mechanism ran exactly as written in September: the event resolved against the written FOMC statement, to the 25 bp increase bucket. The completed June 2026 Fed market archive and this September record show why resolution and a pre-event probability are different states. A contract closing at $1.00 after settlement does not mean the outcome had been certain before the decision.
How attention tracked this decision — and where it goes next
Wave 1 · Post-July baseline + weak payrolls
The July 29 statement established a 3.50%–3.75% range with a three-member dissent. The August 7 payrolls print (-23,000) added a material weak-jobs signal. Polymarket volume surged to $25.25 million by August 11, with $3.28 million in 24-hour volume alone — confirming intense attention to the September decision.
Wave 2 · Post-CPI repricing
July CPI (August 12) cooled core inflation to 2.5% year over year while the monthly core tick resumed at +0.2%; PPI (August 13) was flat. The market responded by repricing from 58%–40% hold-vs-hike on August 11 to 67.5%–31.5% by August 24, and cumulative volume nearly doubled to $49.5 million — evidence that each data release re-concentrates attention on the September board.
Wave 2 · August data sequence
Jobs, CPI, PPI, personal income, and outlays create separate moments when readers search for the next Fed date and compare policy scenarios. Each release can also generate revisions or rule-reading questions.
Wave 3 · Decision week
The wave has crested into decision week: cumulative volume reached $136.7 million by September 12 with $13.7 million in 24-hour volume and $38.9 million over the prior seven days. The strong August jobs print (September 4) produced the first hike lead of the cycle (49.5% vs 48.5%), and the hot August core CPI (September 11) blew the board out to 80.5%–18.5% within about 90 minutes of the release before easing to 78.5%–20.5% by the September 12 check. The projection-associated meeting concentrated date-first and outcome-specific demand through the September 16 statement — and the decision landed while the wave was at its peak.
The promised settlement update shipped September 17, the morning after the statement, keeping this canonical current for the post-decision query wave without creating a competing URL. The evergreen Fed rate prediction-market guide owns the general “how to read FOMC probabilities” intent; this page now stands as the settled September 15–16 record; the dated next-meeting intent belongs to the October 2026 Fed meeting guide.
A repeatable research workflow
Start with exact wording
Save the event title, all five outcome labels, measured rate, baseline convention, rounding rule, source order, fallback, and timestamp before looking at prices.
Maintain a dated evidence log
Record official releases and later revisions separately. A revised payroll or inflation figure should not silently replace what participants knew at the earlier timestamp.
Capture executable context
For every market observation, note best bid, best ask, spread, depth, volume, and time. A last trade by itself is not a complete probability estimate.
Compare institutions carefully
The September ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada guides cover different dates, rates, committees, and contract wording. One decision does not mechanically imply another.
Separate observation from forecast
Label official facts, market data, and interpretation. The existence of volume or a dissent does not prove which September bucket will resolve true.
Recheck before the catalyst
Confirm the calendar, statement link, market status, and rules after each material data release and again 7–14 days before September 16.
Frequently asked questions
When is the September 2026 Fed meeting?
The Federal Reserve calendar schedules the FOMC meeting for Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15–16, 2026. The asterisk on the calendar means the meeting is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.
What did the Fed decide at the September 2026 meeting?
The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. The statement was released at the close of the meeting on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. EDT, and the Committee approved it by a 12–0 vote. The accompanying implementation note raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent effective September 17, 2026.
What did the Fed decide on July 29, 2026?
The FOMC voted 9–3 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented because they preferred a 25-basis-point increase. That is the official baseline entering the September cycle, not a forecast of the next decision.
How did the September 2026 Polymarket Fed market settle?
Settled to the hike. At the September 17, 2026, 14:02 UTC check the event was closed: the 25-basis-point increase contract resolved to Yes at $1.00, the four other buckets closed at $0, and the event finished with about $208.0 million in cumulative volume — up from $136.7 million at the September 12 pre-decision check, when the board showed 78.5% for the hike vs 20.5% for no change. Settlement is a recorded fact about the market; the pre-decision prices were observations, not guarantees.
What outcomes are in the September 2026 Fed market?
The reviewed event has five outcome contracts: a decrease of at least 50 basis points, a 25-basis-point decrease, no change, a 25-basis-point increase, and an increase of at least 50 basis points.
How does the September Fed decision market resolve?
The reviewed rules measure the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range versus its level before the September meeting. The FOMC statement is the named primary source; an unlisted change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points under the event wording.
What was the final scheduled data before the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
The full sequence is now released: the August 7 Employment Situation (payrolls -23,000, unemployment 4.1%), August 12 CPI (core +0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY), August 13 PPI (final demand unchanged), August 26 Personal Income and Outlays (PCE prices +0.2% MoM and +3.7% YoY; core +0.2% and +3.3%), September 1 JOLTS (openings 7.3 million), the September 4 Employment Situation (payrolls +162,000, unemployment 4.1%, July revised to +21,000), the September 10 August PPI (final demand +0.4% MoM / +5.4% YoY; core +0.3% MoM / +4.7% YoY), and the September 11 August CPI (headline +0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY; core +0.3% MoM / +2.4% YoY). No further scheduled releases remain before the September 15–16 meeting; each figure was rechecked with the publishing agency.
When will this September 2026 Fed meeting guide be refreshed?
This guide was updated September 17, 2026 with the full settlement record, the morning after the decision. A confirmation check follows around September 24, 2026 to record the final settlement state. The page now stands as the settled September record; the next dated Fed wave — the October 27–28 meeting — is tracked by the dedicated October guide, whose decision-week refresh is expected in late October.
What did the Polymarket board show before the September 16 decision?
The recorded path: a 52.5%–46.5% hike-vs-hold coin flip on September 8, 2026; an 80.5%–18.5% hike lead within about 90 minutes of the September 11 CPI release; and a 78.5%–20.5% final pre-decision board at the September 12 snapshot. The market then settled to the 25-basis-point increase bucket at $1.00 on September 16. The successor October event showed a displayed 53.5% no-change vs 46.5% for another hike at the September 17 snapshot.
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📈 Every live Polymarket market on the topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
Sources and methodology
- Federal Reserve: FOMC calendars — official July 28–29, September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9 dates; projection marker; minutes-release convention; rechecked September 12, 2026.
- Federal Reserve: July 29, 2026 FOMC statement — 3.50%–3.75% target range, 9–3 vote, named dissents, and statement language; checked August 3.
- Federal Reserve: September 16, 2026 FOMC statement — target range raised 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%; 12–0 vote; 2:00 p.m. EDT release; “timelier return” language; checked September 17, 2026.
- Federal Reserve: Implementation Note issued September 16, 2026 — interest on reserve balances raised to 3.90% effective September 17, 2026; standing repo at 4.0% and reverse repo at 3.75%; checked September 17, 2026.
- BLS: Schedule of Selected Releases 2026 — August and September JOLTS, productivity, employment, CPI, PPI, and import/export-price dates; checked August 3.
- BLS: Employment Situation schedule and CPI schedule — reference months, exact dates, and 8:30 a.m. ET release times; checked August 3.
- BEA: News release schedule — August 26 Personal Income and Outlays date and time; checked August 3.
- Polymarket Gamma API: Fed Decision in September? — event status, five markets, rule text, and settlement: closed after the September 16 statement, 25 bp increase bucket resolved Yes at $1.00, final cumulative volume ≈$208.02 million; checked September 12 at 14:00 UTC (pre-decision board) and September 17 at 14:02 UTC (settlement).
- Polymarket: September Fed decision event — public event surface; prices should be checked live and timestamped.
- BLS: Employment Situation — August 2026 — nonfarm payrolls +162,000; unemployment 4.1% (second month); labor-force participation 61.6%; average hourly earnings +0.3% to $37.75; July payrolls revised from −23,000 to +21,000; released September 4, 2026; series re-verified through the BLS public API on September 5.
- BLS: Consumer Price Index — August 2026 — headline +0.4% month over month and +3.4% year over year; core +0.3% month over month and +2.4% year over year; gasoline +3.9% month over month; release USDL-26-1496, September 11, 2026; checked September 11–12, 2026.
- BLS: Producer Price Indexes — August 2026 — final demand +0.4% month over month and +5.4% year over year; final demand goods +1.1% (energy +4.2%); final demand less foods, energy, and trade services +0.3% month over month and +4.7% year over year; release USDL 26-1495, September 10, 2026; checked September 12, 2026.
- BEA: Personal Income and Outlays — July 2026 — PCE price index +0.2% month over month and +3.7% year over year; core +0.2% and +3.3%; personal income +0.4%; saving rate 3.0%; released August 26, 2026; checked September 3, 2026.
- BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover — July 2026 — openings little changed at 7.3 million (4.4%); hires 5.1 million; quits 3.1 million; June openings revised down 177,000; release USDL-26-1432, September 1, 2026; checked September 3, 2026.
- Planning review covered all 131 records in
posts.json, the complete article HTML archive, all 25 event hubs, the 165-URL sitemap, structured proactive queue, latest GSC snapshot/watchlist, and current-day publisher state before this settlement refresh.