Bank of England September 2026 Decision: Held at 3.75%, 6–3
The settled September 17 outcome and the official 3.75% rate it left unchanged, the five-outcome board that priced it, the settlement rules, and the record of how the market resolved.
Published July 27, 2026 · Substantially updated August 6, 2026 · Market refresh August 27, 2026 · Final pre-meeting refresh September 14, 2026 · Decision: September 17, 2026 · Settlement record September 22, 2026 · Next check: ~September 29, 2026 (settlement confirmation)
The answer first
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its September 2026 meeting — a 6–3 majority of the Monetary Policy Committee, with three members again voting for a 25-basis-point increase to 4%, a repeat of July’s split. The decision was announced Thursday, September 17, 2026, alongside the September summary and minutes, which also record a unanimous vote to wind the stock of UK government bond purchases down to zero through a multi-year plan. UK CPI inflation had risen to 3.1% in August, and the Committee judged the risks to the inflation outlook tilted to the upside while the Middle East energy shock keeps prices elevated. Polymarket’s Bank of England decision in September? event then settled exactly the way its rules name: the no-change bucket resolved to Yes at $1.00, the four change buckets closed at $0, and the event finished with about $483,869 in cumulative volume, up roughly 70% from the $284,934 final pre-meeting check — when the board displayed the hold at 96.75¢, a strong favorite that was never a certainty. The next scheduled MPC decision is Thursday, November 5, 2026 — now tracked in the dedicated Bank of England November 2026 decision hub. This page now records the settled outcome, the market’s resolution record, and the rulebook that governed them.
September 2026 decision: the settled facts and scope
Decided September 17, 2026
The meeting ended September 16, and the Bank Rate announcement, September summary and minutes were published Thursday, September 17. The official record now states the outcome: a hold.
Bank Rate: still 3.75%
The official September summary records a 6–3 vote to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members preferred an increase to 4% — the same split as July’s hold.
Five markets, one settlement
The exact event covered a decrease of at least 50 basis points, a 25-point decrease, no change, a 25-point increase, and an increase of at least 50 points. It closed settled to no change.
$483,869 final volume
At the September 22 check the closed event showed about $483,869 cumulative volume, up from $284,934 at the September 14 final pre-meeting check and $204,128 at the August 27 refresh. The five contract volumes are itemized below.
A date-first search can hide four different questions: when the committee announces, what Bank Rate is now, what documents appear with the decision, and how a prediction market classifies the move. This page answers each separately so an official date is not mistaken for an outcome forecast, and a market end time or last trade is not mistaken for the Bank's own calendar.
Official Bank of England September 2026 timeline
The July Monetary Policy Summary records a 6–3 vote to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members preferred an increase to 4%. The Bank's rate page was updated the same day and named September 17 as the next due date.
The official calendar still named September 17, the rate page still showed 3.75%, and the exact five-contract event remained active, not closed, and accepting orders. The event-level snapshot showed about $134,661 cumulative volume, $3,414 in 24-hour volume, and $24,981 liquidity at 14:05 UTC.
New inflation, pay, employment, activity, and financial-condition evidence can change expectations before the next meeting. Those releases may move forecasts and order books, but none substitutes for the official September MPC announcement as the reviewed market's resolution evidence.
The official calendar still named September 17 and the rate page still showed 3.75%. The exact five-contract event remained active, not closed, and accepting orders with about $204,128 cumulative volume and $32,236 liquidity at 14:01 UTC. Dates and resolution wording were re-verified unchanged.
The official calendar still names September 17 and the rate page still shows 3.75% with current inflation displayed at 2.9%. The exact five-contract event remained active, not closed, and accepting orders with about $284,934 cumulative volume and $3,147 in 24-hour volume at 14:02 UTC, and the no-change bucket was displayed at 96.75¢. Dates and the complete resolution wording were re-verified unchanged.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members preferring a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. The September summary and minutes also record a unanimous vote to reduce the stock of gilt purchases to zero through a multi-year plan. The reviewed rules measure the change caused by this specified meeting relative to the level immediately before it — the change was zero, so the no-change bucket settled.
This page now records the settled outcome, the five-contract settlement table, and the final event volume. The exact Gamma event was rechecked September 22 at 14:01 UTC: closed, with the no-change contract resolved to Yes at $1.00.
The Bank’s calendar lists Thursday, November 5 as the next due date, followed by December 17. Attention now rotates to that meeting, tracked in the November 5 decision hub. The September event’s postponement clause is moot because the specified meeting took place and its decision was announced.
How the September market settled: the settlement record
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Bank of England decision in September? It closed after the September 17 announcement and was rechecked in settlement state on September 22, 2026 at 14:01 UTC: the event and all five component markets are closed, the event finished with approximately $483,869 in cumulative volume, and the no-change bucket resolved to Yes at $1.00 while the four change buckets closed at $0. The settlement matches the named resolution source — official Bank of England information from the specified September meeting, which announced no change to Bank Rate. The five outcome definitions below are the ones that governed that settlement:
Settlement record (September 22, 14:01 UTC Gamma check)
| Bucket | Settled | Final contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| No change | Yes ($1.00) | $277,744 |
| +25 bps | No ($0) | $140,430 |
| -25 bps | No ($0) | $24,865 |
| +50+ bps | No ($0) | $22,321 |
| -50+ bps | No ($0) | $18,509 |
50+ bps decrease
A Bank Rate decrease that the event classifies in its 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after applying the written rounding rules.
25 bps decrease
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so 25 basis points equals 0.25 percentage point.
No change
No qualifying change in Bank Rate resulting from the specified September meeting, including the cancellation or long-postponement fallback described by the event.
25 bps increase
A qualifying increase classified as 25 basis points under the same meeting boundary and rounding method.
50+ bps increase
A Bank Rate increase placed in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the contract's classification rules are applied.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book. Displayed YES prices may not add to exactly 100% because spreads, depth, timing, and independent orders can differ.
The event is narrower than a generic question about the UK economy, the July vote split, or where Bank Rate will finish the year. It names one MPC meeting, one official policy rate, one before-and-after comparison, and one source hierarchy. The July hold does not resolve or mechanically determine any September bucket. That distinction is the main reason a meeting guide is useful: similar-looking rate questions can settle on different dates, baselines, or definitions.
September 14 snapshot (14:02 UTC) — historical final pre-meeting board
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 96.75¢ | 95.6¢ / 97.9¢ | $151,127 |
| +25 bps | 3.5¢ | 2.2¢ / 4.8¢ | $76,606 |
| -25 bps | 0.15¢ | — / 0.3¢ | $19,662 |
| -50+ bps | 0.15¢ | — / 0.3¢ | $16,918 |
| +50+ bps | 0.1¢ | — / 0.2¢ | $20,620 |
What changed between the September 14 snapshot and the settlement
The 96.75¢ favorite won — and three MPC members still dissented
The no-change contract settled to Yes at $1.00 after displaying 96.75¢ (bid 95.6¢ / ask 97.9¢) three days out. The 25-basis-point increase lane closed at 3.5¢ and ended at $0 even though three committee members voted for exactly that move — the crowd read the committee’s majority correctly, while the vote itself stayed split 6–3 for a second consecutive meeting.
Volume grew about 70% into settlement
Cumulative event volume rose from about $284,934 on September 14 to about $483,869 when the books closed. The largest contract was the winning no-change bucket at $277,744, followed by $140,430 on the 25-basis-point increase. Totals measure attention and book depth at a timestamp, not settlement likelihood.
The cross-committee divergence resolved
The September window closed with the ECB delivering a 25-basis-point increase on September 10, the Fed raising its target range 25 basis points on September 16 by a 12–0 vote, and the Bank of England holding at 3.75% the next day — the divergence the boards had been pricing. Attention now rotates to the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting and the Bank’s own November 5 decision.
More than a rate decision
The September minutes also record a unanimous vote to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases to zero, at an annual average pace of £46 billion by the end of 2034 through £20 billion of annual sales alongside maturing gilts. UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July, and the Committee judged inflation risks tilted to the upside with Brent crude at $106 per barrel in mid-September.
Bank Rate market resolution: seven rules that matter
1. Bank Rate is the unit
The event measures the change in the Bank of England's Bank Rate. The Bank explains that this rate influences the borrowing and savings rates offered by commercial banks and other institutions.
2. Compare immediately before and after
Resolution uses the change produced by the September meeting relative to the level before that meeting. The confirmed 3.75% post-July rate is current context, not an irrevocably fixed settlement baseline.
3. Use the upper bound if needed
The rules say that if the specified rate is expressed as an upper and lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. That clause prevents a range from creating an undefined comparison.
4. Small moves round to 25
An increase or decrease smaller than 25 basis points is treated as a 25-basis-point move. Under the reviewed wording, a 10-basis-point change does not become “no change.”
5. Larger moves use nearest-25 rounding
Changes larger than 25 basis points are rounded to the nearest 25. An exact tie is rounded away from zero, so a 37.5-basis-point move is classified as 50 basis points.
6. Official information controls
The event names official Bank of England information, including the statement or release from the September meeting. Surveys, commentary, futures, and press reports can inform expectations but are not the named settlement source.
7. Emergency and schedule clauses differ
Emergency changes not resulting from the specified meeting are excluded. A postponed meeting counts if it occurs before the next scheduled meeting; cancellation or a longer delay falls to no change under the reviewed rules.
Save the current wording
A reproducible research record includes the exact question, description, source link, active/closed status, and timestamp. A screenshot of one price does not preserve the rules.
Why the settled record answers the demand wave
This canonical page was refreshed at 42 days, 21 days, and 3 days before the scheduled decision, so search engines had recrawled one durable URL before the meeting-date wave. The settlement record now targets the queries that follow the announcement — “what did the Bank of England do,” “Bank of England September 2026 decision,” and the settlement-intent searches that arrive after a market resolves. Early demand was already measurable: the exact query next bank of england interest rate decision date produced 51 impressions at average position 1.0 in the seven-day Search Console window measured at the August 6 refresh.
Results wave
After any scheduled decision, searches shift from “when” to “what happened.” This page now answers that directly in the title, H1, and answer-first paragraph: a 6–3 hold at 3.75%, announced September 17, 2026.
Reference value
The settlement table, the September 14 historical board, and the full resolution-rule record make this page a citable September reference — the kind of page later “what happened in September” searches and comparisons against November’s meeting resolve against.
Attention rotates to November 5
The next MPC decision is due Thursday, November 5, 2026. Dated November intent belongs to a future page or a deliberate re-scope of this one; this record stays the September answer.
Research workflow for the September Bank of England decision
Start with the official calendar
Verify September 17 on the Bank of England site. Do not infer the meeting date from a market end time, an unaffiliated economic calendar, or a social post.
Refresh the policy baseline
The July summary and official rate page now confirm 3.75%. Before September, check that page again and record the rate in force; keep it distinct from a forecast and from the change caused by the September meeting.
Read all five questions
Confirm that every outcome carries the same meeting, rate, source, rounding, postponement, and emergency-action language. One short outcome label cannot describe the complete event.
Measure the order books
Use the prediction-market odds guide to record spread and depth rather than treating the last trade as an exact probability. Separate binaries can contain apparent gaps.
Compare institutions carefully
The September ECB guide, September Fed guide, September Bank of Canada guide, the September Bank of Japan guide, and the October Bank of Japan guide, and the October Fed guide cover different dates, policy rates, committees, and rule sets. A move in one market does not mechanically determine another.
Separate context from settlement
The U.S. CPI calendar and U.S. jobs calendar can help map global macro attention, but neither is the BoE market's named resolution source.
Investigate sudden moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can flag a contract for review. It cannot establish whether a move reflects evidence, thin liquidity, or a single order.
Keep probability claims bounded
The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why a quoted probability is evidence to assess, not certainty. No rate bucket or return is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
What did the Bank of England decide at its September 2026 meeting?
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, announced Thursday, September 17, 2026. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase to 4% — the same split as the July hold. The Committee also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases to zero through a multi-year plan. The next scheduled decision is due November 5, 2026.
What happened at the July 2026 Bank of England meeting?
The official July summary says the MPC voted 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. The three dissenting members preferred a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. The decision was published July 30, 2026.
What was Bank Rate before the September 2026 decision?
3.75%. The rate had been maintained at that level by the July 30 vote and was reconfirmed on the Bank’s official rate page on September 14, 2026, three days before the announcement. The September summary’s wording — a vote to “maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%” — confirms the level was 3.75% both immediately before and immediately after the September meeting, which is why the reviewed market’s no-change bucket settled.
How did Polymarket’s September 2026 Bank of England market settle?
The exact event closed after the September 17, 2026 announcement and was rechecked September 22 at 14:01 UTC. The no-change contract resolved to Yes at $1.00, the four change buckets closed at $0, and the event finished with about $483,869 in cumulative volume. Official Bank of England information from the specified meeting is the named resolution source, and the announced decision — no change — matches the settlement.
Which interest rate resolves the September Bank of England market?
The reviewed event uses the change in Bank Rate resulting from the specified September Monetary Policy Committee meeting, relative to its level immediately before that meeting. Official Bank of England information is the named resolution source.
How are unusual Bank Rate changes classified?
The reviewed rules say nonzero changes smaller than 25 basis points are treated as 25 basis points. Larger changes are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with an exact tie rounded away from zero.
What else did the MPC decide in September 2026?
Alongside the rate hold, the Committee voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes to zero. The wind-down runs at an annual average pace of £46 billion by the end of 2034, through annual sales of £20 billion alongside maturing gilts. The September summary also records that UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August.
When will this Bank of England September 2026 guide be refreshed?
A settlement-confirmation check is planned for on or about September 29, 2026, after which this page stands as the settled September record. An earlier review would follow a settlement dispute, a rule reinterpretation, or an official correction. Dated November 5 decision intent is a separate future publication decision, not a change to this record.
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Sources and methodology
- Bank of England: upcoming Monetary Policy Committee dates — official July 30, September 17, and November 5 decision dates and the documents scheduled with each announcement; the 2027 provisional announcement dates are now also listed. Checked September 22, 2026.
- Bank of England: July 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes — official 6–3 vote to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members preferring 4%. Checked August 6, 2026.
- Bank of England: September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes — official 6–3 vote to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% with three members preferring 4%; UK CPI inflation 3.1% in August; unanimous vote to reduce the stock of gilt purchases to zero at a £46 billion-a-year average pace through 2034; next decision due November 5, 2026. Checked September 22, 2026.
- Bank of England: interest rates and Bank Rate — official 3.75% post-July rate, September 17 next-due notice, Bank Rate definition, MPC role, and the post-decision next-due notice for November 5, 2026. Checked September 22, 2026.
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK — July 2026 — official CPI at 2.9% for the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6%; core CPI 2.6% unchanged. Released August 19, 2026; checked September 14, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: Bank of England decision in September? — exact event status, five open markets, event volume and liquidity, Bank Rate unit, official source hierarchy, rounding, emergency-action, postponement, and cancellation rules. Checked September 14, 2026 at 14:02 UTC (final pre-meeting board) and September 22, 2026 at 14:01 UTC (closed; no-change resolved to Yes at $1.00; about $483,869 final volume).
- Public Polymarket event — live surface for current order books and contract text. Timestamped prices in this guide are point-in-time reads, not live quotes.
The August 6 refresh reviewed the complete 98-entry blog index and article archive, all 18 event hubs, the 125-URL sitemap, proactive state and planned refreshes, current-day publisher output, and a fresh local GSC snapshot and watchlist. Exact and semantic scans confirmed this canonical page already owns the Bank of England September 2026 and next-decision-date intent. A new URL would have cannibalized it, so the existing hub received an exact date-first title, description, H1 and answer, a current demand-qualified market snapshot, a revised timeline, matching visible/schema FAQs, and additional contextual inbound links instead.
The August 27 pre-decision refresh re-verified the official calendar (September 17 unchanged), the 3.75% Bank Rate and next-due notice, event and market active status, the five-market inventory, and the complete resolution wording, and added a timestamped order-book snapshot to the same canonical URL. The September 14 final pre-meeting refresh re-verified the official calendar and Bank Rate page (September 17 and 3.75% unchanged, current inflation displayed at 2.9%), checked the ONS July 2026 consumer-price-inflation bulletin behind that figure, confirmed the event and all five markets active and open, and rebased the timestamped order-book snapshot after reviewing the complete 129-entry blog index and article archive, all 25 event hubs, and the 163-URL sitemap for overlap. The September 22 decision-day settlement record verified the official September summary and minutes, rechecked the closed Gamma event with all five settled contracts, and rebased this page onto the settled outcome after reviewing the complete 135-entry blog index and article archive, all 25 event hubs, and the 169-URL sitemap for overlap. Today’s reactive daily covers the U.S. midterms sweep lane and does not overlap this record.