ECB September 2026 Decision: 25 bps Hike to a 2.50% Deposit Rate
The decided outcome of the September 9–10 Berlin meeting, the official rate table that records it, a timestamped post-decision snapshot of the five Polymarket rate buckets, settlement rules, and research checkpoints.
Published July 23, 2026 · Updated September 10, 2026 · Meeting: September 9–10, 2026 · Next planned refresh: final-settlement check once proposed resolutions post
The answer first
On day two of its September 9–10, 2026 Berlin meeting, the ECB's Governing Council raised the three key rates by 25 basis points: the official key-interest-rate table now records the deposit facility rate at 2.50% (effective September 16, 2026), with the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90% — the first change since June 17. The exact Polymarket event for this meeting was still open at the September 10 post-decision check with about $601,990 in cumulative volume; its 25-basis-point-increase bucket displayed about 99.95 cents, and resolution was proposed on all five contracts pending final settlement. This page records the decision, the baseline it changed, the pre- and post-decision snapshots, and the contract rules — it does not treat a displayed price as a guarantee.
Official ECB September 2026 timeline
The ECB's official table records the deposit facility rate moving to 2.25%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%. That June move is the policy baseline the September contracts measure against.
The ECB held its scheduled two-day meeting in Frankfurt with the press conference on July 23. No key-rate change followed: the official rates table has shown no new row since June 17. The published ECB record, not a headline or market move, establishes that pause.
This page's first publication checked the official calendar, the ECB's official-rate reference page, and the exact Gamma event. Five meeting-specific outcome contracts were active and open.
Rechecked the policy baseline against the official rates table, re-verified the event's active/open status and contract set, and recorded the timestamped market snapshot below. No calendar or rule change was found.
Rechecked the policy baseline against the official rates table (no new row since June 17), re-verified the event's active/open status and contract set, and recorded the decision-week snapshot below. No calendar or rule change was found.
The Governing Council's monetary-policy meeting was held in Berlin as scheduled, hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank.
The official key-interest-rate table records the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90%, effective September 16, 2026 — exactly the official ECB information the reviewed contracts name as resolution evidence.
At about 14:01 UTC the Polymarket event was still open: the 25-basis-point-increase bucket displayed about 99.95¢, the four other buckets about 0.05¢ each, and UMA resolution was proposed on all five markets. A final-settlement record follows once resolutions post.
This later meeting — now tracked in the dedicated ECB October 2026 meeting hub — matters to the September contracts' postponement clause. If the September meeting were postponed beyond the start of the next scheduled meeting, the reviewed rules say the September event resolves to the no-change bracket.
September 10 post-decision: outcome and settlement watch
Two checks anchor this record. First, the official outcome: the ECB's key-interest-rate table, read on September 10, 2026 after the press conference, now shows a new row — deposit facility rate 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65%, marginal lending facility 2.90%, effective September 16, 2026. Second, a timestamped post-decision snapshot of the exact Polymarket event, taken at about 14:01 UTC on September 10, 2026:
25 bps increase — YES ≈ 99.95¢ (decided bucket)
Matches the official decision: the deposit facility rate rises 25 basis points to 2.50% effective September 16. At the post-decision check the event had about $601,990 cumulative volume and UMA resolution was proposed, pending final settlement.
No change — YES ≈ 0.05¢
The main alternative bucket before the decision (0.35¢ on September 7) collapsed to a tail once the official table posted the increase. Displayed outcome price, not an executable quote.
50+ bps increase — YES ≈ 0.05¢
Fell from 0.15¢ at the September 7 check; the decided 25-point move left no room for the larger-increase bucket.
25 bps decrease — YES ≈ 0.05¢
Unchanged tail: the market had not priced an easing path into this meeting at either the pre- or post-decision checks.
50+ bps decrease — YES ≈ 0.05¢
The deepest tail bucket at both the September 7 and September 10 checks.
Event totals
About $601,990 cumulative volume, $91,900 liquidity, and roughly $89,900 in 24-hour volume across the five books at the post-decision check; API end time (11:59 UTC) had passed and all five UMA resolutions were proposed pending final settlement.
What the verified Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled ECB Interest Rates: September 2026. At the September 10, 2026 post-decision check its top-level event was still not closed, and each of its five component markets carried a proposed UMA resolution pending final settlement. The outcome labels were:
50+ bps decrease
A decrease in the specified rate that the contract classifies in its 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket.
25 bps decrease
A smaller decrease classified as 25 basis points under the contract's explicit rounding rules.
No change
No qualifying change in the deposit facility rate resulting from the specified September meeting, including the cancellation edge case described by the contract.
25 bps increase
An increase classified as 25 basis points under the same meeting-specific and rounding boundaries.
50+ bps increase
An increase placed in the event's 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after applying the written rules.
Five binaries, one decision
Each row is a separate yes/no order book. Their displayed YES prices may not add to exactly 100% because spreads, fees, depth, timing, and independent orders can differ.
The useful research angle is not simply “hike or hold.” The event specifies a particular rate, meeting, source hierarchy, rounding method, and treatment of postponements. Those details distinguish the September event from a year-end ECB-rate question, a different central bank, or a contract tied to a broad policy announcement.
ECB market resolution: six rules that matter
1. Deposit facility rate
The reviewed event measures the change in the ECB deposit facility rate relative to its level before the September meeting — the 2.25% pre-meeting baseline (September 7 check), moved to 2.50% by the decided change. The ECB publishes multiple official rates, so a main refinancing-rate headline should not be substituted without checking the contract.
2. Meeting-caused change
The change must result from the specified September meeting. The rules explicitly exclude emergency rate changes that do not result from that meeting.
3. Official ECB evidence
The contract names official ECB information, including the September statement or release. Commentary, surveys, futures pricing, and press reports may inform expectations but do not replace the named resolution evidence.
4. Non-standard rounding
A change smaller than 25 basis points is classified as 25. A change larger than 25 is rounded to the nearest 25; an exact tie is rounded away from zero. A 10-point move therefore does not become “no change” under these rules.
5. Postponement boundary
If the meeting is postponed but happens before the next scheduled meeting begins, the event follows the postponed result. If it is cancelled or delayed beyond that boundary, the reviewed rules assign the no-change bracket.
6. Save the current wording
Resolution descriptions can be clarified. A careful research record includes the exact question, current description, source link, active/closed status, and timestamp—not only a screenshot of one price.
Why demand rises after the decision
This settlement record is published on decision day itself, so search engines re-crawl a page that answers the post-decision questions directly: what the council decided, what the new rate level is, and how the prediction market settles. The outcome is pinned by the official September 16 table row, and the meeting-specific Polymarket event had cleared more than $600,000 in volume by the post-decision check.
Outcome-first wave
“What did the ECB decide” and “ECB interest rate September 2026” now resolve to a fixed official answer — deposit facility 2.50% effective September 16 — stated in this page's title, intro, and timeline.
Evidence wave through early September
As euro-area inflation, activity, wage, and financial-condition evidence arrived through August and early September, the books consolidated: the 25-basis-point increase firmed from about 91¢ at the August 20 refresh to 99.65¢, while no change fell from 9.5¢ to 0.35¢. After the decision the increase bucket printed about 99.95¢ with resolution proposed — a documented near-certainty market tracking the official outcome.
Settlement and next-meeting wave
Search interest stays specific through final settlement and then pivots to the next date: the October 28–29 Frankfurt meeting, now tracked in its own hub, the same boundary the September contracts' postponement clause used. The October Fed guide and October Bank of Japan guide track the sibling decisions.
Research workflow for the September ECB decision
Start with the official calendar
Verify the meeting dates on the ECB site. Do not infer the September schedule from a market end time, an economic-calendar mirror, or a social post.
Name the rate and unit
Write down “deposit facility rate” and “basis points” before comparing outcomes. A 25-basis-point change equals 0.25 percentage points; the decided move takes the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.50% — a level change, not a 25% proportional move.
Read all five contracts
Confirm that each outcome carries the same source, meeting boundary, rounding method, and postponement language. One label alone does not describe the full event.
Measure the order books
Use the prediction-market odds guide to record spread and depth rather than treating the last trade as an exact probability. Independent binary books can contain apparent gaps.
Compare central banks carefully
The September 2026 Bank of England guide, the September 2026 Fed guide, the September 2026 Bank of Japan guide, and the October 2026 Bank of Japan guide cover different institutions, dates, rate frameworks, and contract sets. A move in one board does not mechanically determine another.
Map nearby U.S. data separately
The 2026 jobs report calendar and 2026 CPI calendar provide useful macro context, but U.S. releases are not the ECB event's settlement source.
Investigate sharp moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can flag a contract for review. It cannot establish whether the move came from new evidence, thin liquidity, or one large order.
Keep outcome claims bounded
The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why a quoted probability is evidence to assess, not certainty. No bucket is guaranteed to win.
Frequently asked questions
What did the ECB decide at its September 2026 meeting?
On day two of the September 9–10 Berlin meeting, the Governing Council raised the three key ECB rates by 25 basis points. The official key-interest-rate table records the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90%, all effective September 16, 2026.
When is the September 2026 ECB meeting?
The ECB calendar schedules the monetary-policy meeting for September 9–10, 2026 in Berlin, hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank. Day two is followed by the ECB press conference.
What is the ECB's current interest rate?
As of the September 10, 2026 post-decision check of the ECB's official rates table, the deposit facility rate is 2.50% (effective September 16, 2026), the main refinancing operations rate is 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate is 2.90% — a 25-basis-point increase from the June 17 levels decided at the Berlin meeting.
Are there active ECB September 2026 prediction markets?
Yes. At the September 10, 2026 post-decision check the Gamma event was still open — its API end time had passed and UMA resolution was proposed on all five contracts, but final settlement had not yet posted: about $601,990 cumulative volume, about $91,900 liquidity, and roughly $89,900 in 24-hour volume across 50+ basis-point decrease, 25-basis-point decrease, no change, 25-basis-point increase, and 50+ basis-point increase.
What did Polymarket prices imply at the September 7 refresh?
At about 14:00 UTC on September 7, 2026, YES prices were roughly 99.65 cents for a 25-basis-point increase, 0.35 cents for no change, 0.15 cents for a 50+ basis-point increase, and 0.05 cents for each decrease bucket. This is a timestamped snapshot of market-implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
What rate does the September ECB prediction market use?
The reviewed Polymarket event measures the change in the ECB deposit facility rate resulting from the September meeting, relative to its level before that meeting. It does not use a generic average of every ECB policy rate.
How do unusual ECB rate changes round in the reviewed market?
The written rules say changes smaller than 25 basis points are treated as 25 basis points. Changes larger than 25 are rounded to the nearest 25, with an exact tie rounded away from zero.
Do emergency ECB moves count toward the September market?
Not under the reviewed rules. Emergency changes that do not result from the specified September meeting are excluded. The postponement and cancellation clauses should also be checked before relying on any outcome label.
When will this ECB September 2026 guide be refreshed?
This page's post-decision settlement record was published on September 10, 2026. The next check records the event's final settlement once the proposed resolutions post on-chain, and the page is also updated earlier if settlement or contract rules change materially.
Sources and methodology
- European Central Bank: Governing Council meeting calendar — official July, September, and October 2026 dates; Berlin host information; day-two press-conference status. Checked July 23, 2026; rechecked September 7 and September 10, 2026 — the September 9–10 Berlin meeting concluded with its day-two press conference, and the October 28–29 Frankfurt follow-on remains the next scheduled meeting.
- European Central Bank: official interest rates — new row effective September 16, 2026: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65%, marginal lending facility 2.90% (a 25-basis-point increase from the June 17 levels); read at the September 10, 2026 post-decision check. Also documents the official distinction among the three rates.
- Polymarket Gamma: ECB Interest Rates — September 2026 — exact event status, five open markets, deposit-facility-rate unit, official source hierarchy, rounding, emergency-action, postponement, and cancellation rules; pre-decision snapshot recorded September 7, 2026 at about 14:00 UTC and post-decision snapshot September 10, 2026 at about 14:01 UTC ($601,990 cumulative volume, 25-bps-increase YES ≈ 99.95¢, UMA resolution proposed on all five markets).
- Public Polymarket event — live market surface for current order books and contract text. Prices reproduced above only as a timestamped snapshot with staleness caveats.
The original July 23 publication review covered the complete blog index, all article HTML files, all existing event hubs, the pre-publication sitemap, proactive state, current-day publisher logs, and the latest local GSC snapshot; the page is educational and does not claim a future ECB decision. The August 20, September 7, and September 10, 2026 refreshes re-checked the baseline and market facts above against the same canonical URL — no new URL was created, because this hub already owns the ECB September intent and a second page would cannibalize it.